Asura Inflation - What's Going On?

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Asura inflation - What's going on?
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By Felgarr 2024-01-19 09:07:23
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Carbuncle.Maletaru said: »
I mean anecdotes are anecdotes and people who were banned are not the most reliable source for information about why they were banned. SE doesn't tell you why you were banned and even if they did, there's a pretty obvious incentive to cover up why. Nobody's gonna come out publicly and say "I got banned, I buy gil, bot, use Tako, use Cureplease, buy ML, merc, and use JA0 wait." Much more likely, they pick the least offensive thing they've done and go with that.

Small sample size, but among my friend group there have been fewer bans/suspensions in the past few months than there were last year.

Maybe the RMT have realized that they can just con idiots out of their gil and they don't need to actually put in any work anymore, so they stopped bothering with in-game activities.

Also worth considering that these "RMT" who are stealing gil from people and pretending they're gonna do EP or Gaol clears could just be regular *** players who created a mule.

Yeah, if there's a perception that SE isn't enforcing the rules, you'll get lots of level 1 mule scammers. I believe GMs are supposed to intervene here, but who knows what's that like today? (Back when Gambling shouts were a thing, I know GMs would help people who got scammed)
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By Phoenix.Iocus 2024-01-19 09:24:12
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There are no RULES!

Except don't cuss at JP because that is naughty.
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By Carbuncle.Maletaru 2024-01-19 09:38:05
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Phoenix.Iocus said: »
Except don't cuss at JP because that is naughty.

How many of your friends have been banned for cussing at JP?

There are definitely rules, they're just not enforced. If we're being honest, nobody really wants them to be enforced. Everyone complains about how the rules aren't enforced, but if they were enforced most of the people complaining would be banned.

Everyone wants SE to enforce THEIR idea of what the rules should be, but thinks their usage of third-party tools is totally OK.
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 Carbuncle.Nynja
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By Carbuncle.Nynja 2024-01-19 09:40:36
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Bro you played on Gilgamesh, you remember Beer's bazaar comment?

NA PLAYER IS SHITTTT ********* *** NA PLAYER SHITTTTTTT

I know a lot of people reported it, and it was never changed. Meanwhile, a search comment of "NA PT ONLY" gets action taken on it.

Lets not forget how quickly SE caved to fixing Stage 4 sortie only when it was the JP community who complained about it. If you truly believe that SE doesnt favor the JP community, idk what to tell you.
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By Carbuncle.Maletaru 2024-01-19 09:44:01
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Carbuncle.Nynja said: »
Bro you played on Gilgamesh, you remember Beer's bazaar comment?

NA PLAYER IS SHITTTT ********* *** NA PLAYER SHITTTTTTT

I know a lot of people reported it, and it was never changed.

Lets not forget how quickly SE caved to fixing Stage 4 sortie only when it was the JP community who complained about it. If you truly believe that SE doesnt favor the JP community, idk what to tell you.

I've heard stories about this guy (prolly from you) but I have no memory of ever seeing this.

He's not wrong tho.

I never said they don't favor the JPs, obviously they do, but I don't think anyone's getting banned or even a stern talking to for cussing at this point...
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By Asura.Iamaman 2024-01-19 09:44:58
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Carbuncle.Maletaru said: »
I mean anecdotes are anecdotes and people who were banned are not the most reliable source for information about why they were banned.
...
Small sample size, but among my friend group there have been fewer bans/suspensions in the past few months than there were last year.

My experience is the opposite, I know more people who were banned August-October than I have in several years combined. Some were individual accounts that didn't multibox, some were multiboxers who had 1 or 2 accounts banned, others had their entire multibox crew banned. I can't really explain it, although part of me wonders if it was related to overuse of speed/warp tools in Sortie as part of an effort to optimize galli runs, but most of them also admitted to botting EP, so it could just as well be that. I do agree buying ML is unlikely, but if they are really doing automated bans for people who exceed a certain engagement time then it doesn't seem out of the question they'd hit people in the party, although I feel like we'd hear about this more often.

There's also no reason for people to lie to their friends about why they were banned, it's not 2005 where you will be shunned for using tools by most people. Everyone I've known was upfront about what they did and what they used. SE has never been consistent about banning and there are limits on what they can automatically detect, so it seems to heavily depend on reporting, but people are being banned albeit really inconsistently.
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By Carbuncle.Nynja 2024-01-19 09:47:26
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Asura.Iamaman said: »
although part of me wonders if it was related to overuse of speed/warp tools
Its this one.
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By Carbuncle.Maletaru 2024-01-19 09:49:04
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Asura.Iamaman said: »
There's also no reason for people to lie to their friends about why they were banned, it's not 2005 where you will be shunned for using tools by most people. Everyone I've known was upfront about what they did and what they used.

Not talking about discussions amongst friends, but this comment:

K123 said: »
I keep hearing of people being banned for "buying Mlevels".

Doesn't sound like he's talking to his friends. Or if he is, they're definitely not being entirely honest about their use of tools. Sounds like people /yelling, or about casual discussion in PUGs about people who got banned "for buying ML" which sounds like people covering their tracks, IDK.
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By Carbuncle.Nynja 2024-01-19 09:54:22
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No ones getting banned for "buying ML's" lol

Unless they made a deal with RMT "heres 300 million gil, I'm going out of town for a week, leave me in the party" and they literally MLed for a week straight without moving.
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By GetHelpNerd 2024-01-19 09:54:35
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the people selling mlvl's are botting with very basic bots 24/7.

not super surprising SE would ban people gaining from being in their party.

the ban likely has nothing to do with paying the mlvl mule
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By Shiva.Thorny 2024-01-19 09:55:36
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Asura.Iamaman said: »
I know more people who were banned August-October than I have in several years combined.
Seconding this.

Quote:
There's also no reason for people to lie to their friends about why they were banned, it's not 2005 where you will be shunned for using tools by most people.
It's not about being shunned, it's about getting sympathy. Nobody's going to feel bad for you if you say you got banned but admit you were botting 24/7 and speedhacking in sortie.

Quote:
SE has never been consistent about banning
That's always going to be the big takeaway on anything regarding banning.

But, again, the inflation is probably being caused by the 600-800 billion gil the chinese sparks alliances created in 2023. Individual items are also effected by market, but it's insane to pretend that has no impact..
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By Carbuncle.Nynja 2024-01-19 10:05:57
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Asura.Iamaman said: »
some were multiboxers who had 1 or 2 accounts banned, others had their entire multibox crew banned
The multiboxers who had 1 or 2 accounts banned had accounts on separate SEID's, the whole multibox crew that got banned was on the same SEID.

A friend of mine got hit a couple yrs back, despite doing all the same stuff with all his chars, only one SEID got wiped.
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By K123 2024-01-19 11:26:06
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I have heard of more bans the last few months than for a couple years prior. I think Tako is definitely involved for some, but the "I was just buying mlevels" seems to have become a common claim. Not sure if it became a meme while I was gone.
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By Seun 2024-01-19 16:49:30
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K123 said: »
I have heard of more bans the last few months than for a couple years prior. I think Tako is definitely involved for some, but the "I was just buying mlevels" seems to have become a common claim. Not sure if it became a meme while I was gone.

More likely that people are doing something else they'd rather not admit to for lack of sympathy. Being AFk is only worthy of a ban if your account(s) are being automated while you're away.
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By Bahamut.Celebrindal 2024-01-19 16:55:42
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ask yourself legitimately: "is it easier to make gil today or 5 years ago?" and then ask "do I have more or less to buy today than I did 5 years ago?"


As we have less we want to spend gil on, the "regular" stuff we have to buy will naturally rise because we have both less to worry about saving for along with easier methods to make gil. Been worried about it for at least 4 years now, and I think its finally starting to happen: food is going to become our primary expenditure by a longshot as this game dies and there just isn't anything else worth buying.
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By Lili 2024-01-19 17:17:27
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Not only there's trillion of gilz added to the economy, price of gil also tanked. 1 dolla now buys 5-6m which means that buying capped gil went from the 1000 dolla of a few years back to 200. Lots of people are more than willing to do that, then spend dumb amounts of gil on dumb stuff.
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By Seun 2024-01-19 17:38:30
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Bahamut.Celebrindal said: »
ask yourself legitimately: "is it easier to make gil today or 5 years ago?" and then ask "do I have more or less to buy today than I did 5 years ago?"

Gonna say it was generally easier to make gil 5 years ago. Sparks being so easily obtained is the reason why I had all those things to buy back then and don't have much left today. From the perspective of someone new or someone who had been away during that period, I'd say it's much harder to earn gil these days.
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By Asura.Clintbeastwood 2024-01-19 17:52:35
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Bahamut.Celebrindal said: »
ask yourself legitimately: "is it easier to make gil today or 5 years ago?" and then ask "do I have more or less to buy today than I did 5 years ago?"

For me personally, easier. Between AMAN Trove and multiboxing dyna, I make more than enough gil to feed my REMA addiction. AMAN typically adds 50-100m a month for me (sometimes nothing too though). This month I got a crep knife (gave to LS mate) and an O. sash that sold for 110m. Knife probably would have sold for 100m. Couple months ago I pulled 2 crep cloaks the same day, gave both to LS mates but I still see them sell for 200m.

This month has so many $$$ campaigns going on, you could easily make tons of gil.

Do I have less to buy today? Kind of? I'm feeding a family of 4 though, so that can be expensive. My main doesn't have much less to get other than reforging the next job I might wanna play.

Also, someone said K clubs were 600m a year ago, but they were 300m not much longer than that ago. I'd say a year and a half, 2 years tops. I remember watching them steadily climb to where they are now, as we had a "kraken club day trader" in the shell constantly buying and reselling it making 5-10m every transaction.
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By Shichishito 2024-01-19 18:19:41
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If it was all inflation related prices would have gone up slowly over time but I also observed sudden price hikes.

Kraken Club went rather quickly from 500-600 to 800+ but it's probably not a good example cause for someone with a lot of gil and multiple characters it should be easy to price fix due to the slow sale rates.

But I remember dynamis currencies dwelling somewhere around the 100k mark for a long time and at the end of the last Return Home to Vana'diel Campaign they were suddenly at 400-600k.
A stack of beitetsu must have been around 400-600k a little while ago and last Return Home campaign it was between 700-1000k.

I think for some items and currencies it's simply blatant price fixing. It's done particularly during free campaign probably cause that's when you encounter more people not familiar with the current market, returnies just pay whatever the AH history lists.


However, I don't see inflation causing a 5x increase for dynamis currency, even if all bots got banned. Relics are the oldest and one of the easiest to create so most people who want one already have one, not to mention sortie horn and shield made the 2 most popular relics kind of redundant.
Plutons, riftborns and in particular beitetsus seem to go UP when HTMB campaign is active, although the extra supply would suggest a price drop. One could argue that return home campaign also drove up demand but that wouldn't explain why alexandrite didn't explode at a similar rate.
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By Meeble 2024-01-19 18:20:50
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Bahamut.Celebrindal said: »
ask yourself legitimately: "is it easier to make gil today or 5 years ago?" and then ask "do I have more or less to buy today than I did 5 years ago?"

It's highly variable depending on the player.

If you have friends or a shell for doing full clear seg runs or lowman dyna, sure, easy gil for days. Likewise, multiboxers have options like Ambu, Delve points, UNM spam, or vagary RoE's that give stacking rewards for every character.

If you're a true solo player or your remaining in-game friends are only interested in daily sortie, your options for solo income are pretty limited. Weekly sparks million, Omen trash farming, Sheol mimic baiting, or trying to compete with the sphere bots.
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By Carbuncle.Gokku 2024-01-19 18:58:03
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I barely play but at least on my server, the player base fell off a cliff when the final content was a 6man 1 hour daily grind. This lead to dyna mats becoming scares. That lead to more alts and the infinite gil glitch (think sparks but uncapped via npcing vendor stuff from conquest) so demand for some of this stuff spikes but also not enough people are running it to make it worth crafting.

I can say I did better then the margins on the first page I spent about 350mil, sold 1.2 bil in a month then stopped crafting, with 11x dagger mats unused from the 99. I got very lucky making setan kobers.
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By Seun 2024-01-19 19:38:45
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Asura.Clintbeastwood said: »
Bahamut.Celebrindal said: »
ask yourself legitimately: "is it easier to make gil today or 5 years ago?" and then ask "do I have more or less to buy today than I did 5 years ago?"

For me personally, easier. Between AMAN Trove and multiboxing dyna, I make more than enough gil to feed my REMA addiction. AMAN typically adds 50-100m a month for me (sometimes nothing too though). This month I got a crep knife (gave to LS mate) and an O. sash that sold for 110m. Knife probably would have sold for 100m. Couple months ago I pulled 2 crep cloaks the same day, gave both to LS mates but I still see them sell for 200m.

What would your answer be if you excluded all of the gil you receive as a byproduct of paying more money for it? Trove isn't work, it's a raffle ticket. You buy more tickets so you win more raffles.

If you grind something for an hour to earn gil... is that worth what it was 5 years ago?
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By Carbuncle.Maletaru 2024-01-19 20:32:37
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Shichishito said: »
Relics are the oldest and one of the easiest to create so most people who want one already have one, not to mention sortie horn and shield made the 2 most popular relics kind of redundant.

This is one of the most ignorant things I've seen in a while, congrats. Ignoring the fact that stage 5 primes take 6 months to make, anyone who is making a prime shield or prime horn already has a relic horn or shield, guaranteed. Also: neither of the primes completely replaces either of the relics, so...this is wrong on like 4 levels.

I think you're underestimating the scale of the economics here. Gilsellers (on Carbuncle) were farming hundreds of 100-piece dynamis currencies every day, meanwhile a near-0 number of real players were farming dynamis currency. There are now 0 gilsellers farming dynamis, which means the supply went from thousands of 100-pieces available every week to...whatever people get out of ambuscade? The supply was cut by probably 95%. If you don't understand how that drives prices up, I don't know what to tell you.
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By Shichishito 2024-01-19 21:54:50
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Carbuncle.Maletaru said: »
neither of the primes completely replaces either of the relics
that's why I said "kind of".

Just noticed the prime instrument needs to be fully upgraded for song +4 so I see why someone would go for Gjallarhorn instead/first.

I'm no tank but the prime shield looks already pretty good after the first upgrade. Are there many occasions where you'd be lost without the extra -35% magic damage taken II from aegis over duban?

Carbuncle.Maletaru said: »
The supply was cut by probably 95%. If you don't understand how that drives prices up, I don't know what to tell you.
The thing that makes it sus is that they still sell very fast according to FFXIAH.

Why would someone buy into that market NOW when there were multiple years where they could've for a fraction of the cost.
Even if they banned the entire alliance chances are RMT stocked up on keys during christmas/return home campaign at a discount and will be back in a matter of weeks.

Relics aren't groceries, it doesn't make sense to buy now.

Carbuncle.Maletaru said: »
I think you're underestimating the scale of the economics here.
I think you're underestimating the scale of my ignorance here.
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By Carbuncle.Maletaru 2024-01-19 22:16:19
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Shichishito said: »
Why would someone buy into that market NOW when there were multiple years where they could've for a fraction of the cost.

Just leveled a new job, creating a new mule, etc. They didn't have the need before, now they do. You can't very well tell your team to wait another 3 months for prices to go down before you make a relic if you "need" one

Shichishito said: »
I'm no tank but the prime shield looks already pretty good after the first upgrade. Are there many occasions where you'd be lost without the extra -35% magic damage taken II from aegis over duban?

Think about it this way, if you take a 1k damage nuke:
With 50% DT: 500 damage
With Prime stage 3: 350 damage
With prime stage 5: 250 damage
With Aegis: 125 damage

So Aegis takes between half and almost 1/3 of the magic damage that a prime shield user would take. It's still very much useful for pure magic situations.
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By Sylph.Snk 2024-01-20 02:42:14
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The Inflation is happening on Bahamut also and in weird ways. A Peacock Charm going for 3 million is super dumb as ***when you can simply farm the Rare/Ex version of the same damn thing.

Spike Necklaces are 100k a pop as well. I know people are lazy but this is beyond stupid.
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By Shiva.Thorny 2024-01-20 05:42:08
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Lili said: »
1 dolla now buys 5-6m which means that buying capped gil went from the 1000 dolla of a few years back to 200.

Your point is valid, but the numbers are very wrong. It was that low in october/november, but once SE started banning the sparks bots it popped up very quickly. Chinese resellers will buy for more than $0.25/m now, and you're not typically going to get capped gil for under 280(there is at least one small seller who doesn't understand economics and sells for ~240 but he also basically never has stock for the same reason).

This still comes back to the sparks bots dumping 600-800 billion gil into the market in one year, though. Just from a different angle.

Sylph.Snk said: »
The Inflation is happening on Bahamut also and in weird ways. A Peacock Charm going for 3 million is super dumb as ***when you can simply farm the Rare/Ex version of the same damn thing.
This is silly. Even after the spawn time changes, you're talking 6 hours or more on average to farm an amulet. 3m is not a lot to save 6 hours.

Quote:
Spike Necklaces are 100k a pop as well. I know people are lazy but this is beyond stupid.
In this case, you're paying for the AH slot. They sell inconsistantly(once every ~4 days on average per XIAH for bahamut) and for very little. If they were closer to material cost, what would be the point? Even at 100k, it barely seems worth it.
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By K123 2024-01-20 07:57:09
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Is it against tos to be passive in botting ML or not?
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By Shiva.Thorny 2024-01-20 08:11:36
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K123 said: »
Is it against tos to be passive in botting ML or not?

Think the better question is if you'll get banned for it, and all evidence points to "no". Pretty sure it's not against TOS either, though:

Quote:
2.1 Cheating and Botting. You may not create or use any cheats, bots, automation software, hacks, mods or any other unauthorized software designed to modify the Game and gameplay. In addition, you may not take advantage of game system bugs and exploits during gameplay.

2.2 Real Money Trading, Farming and Power-Leveling. You may not sell, purchase or exchange for real-world money or value any in-game currency, accounts, characters, in-game services, or in-game virtual items. You may not play the Game for the purpose of acquiring virtual items or advancement in game play on behalf of a third-party or for the purpose of selling any virtual assets to a third party for real-world money, specifically including “gold-farming” and power-leveling services.

2.3 Commercial Use. You may not exploit the Game for any commercial purpose (for example, advertising any product or service in-game, or use by the operator of a cyber café) without SQUARE ENIX’s prior written consent.

2.4 Private Servers. You may not create, operate, participate in or use any unauthorized servers intended to emulate the Game.

2.5 Data Mining. You may not intercept, mine or otherwise collect information from the Game using unauthorized third party software.

2.6 Hacking and Circumvention. You may not hack, disassemble, decompile, or otherwise modify the Game or server computer code, whether the Game code is located on a DVD, Blu-rayTM disc, your computer/console or on SQUARE ENIX’s servers, except as expressly permitted by SQUARE ENIX or applicable law.

2.7 Modifying or Creating Derivative Software. You may not modify or cause to be modified any files that are a part of the Game or Service in any way not expressly authorized by SQUARE ENIX, and may not make any derivative works of the Game.

2.8 Commercial Spamming/Spimming. You may not use (or abuse) the in-game chat and message services to distribute advertisements.

The only thing that seems to include people benefitting without directly doing is:
Code
you may not take advantage of game system bugs and exploits during gameplay.


OFC, everyone here is violating TOS regardless in one way or another..
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