Direction Matters In Synthing?

Considering things from a tech point of view, it is possible that the Randomness still has patterns built into it based off the hardware/software/seeding algorithms etc. So while they may say it is completely random, there is SOME level of repetiton or patterning that will exist.

I play (at win) at roulette a lot and try to observe how a given wheel is acting. They post the last 40+ numbers where I play. Usually a wheel is a little out of balance and you can pick the 2/3rds of the field that is "hot".

Another example is with a die. I use a Pip D6 dice when I roll because since the Pips are drilled out the 6 will come up slightly more often do to the weight being haeviest in the 1 side.

So I guess I would STILL take all the elements into consideration now that I do just to get that "little extra"!

B-)

A bit late to chime in on the "developer perspective" but I've also worked on an MMO, as well as a few single player RPG's (and 2-3 crafting systems specifically). I agree that it's probably A LOT more to do with a good RNG (random number generator) than all these crazy variables the player base has come up with.

However.

If the player object in the game code is setup properly, we could have something as simple as this:

(granted I'm making this up as I go along but I think you get my point. The most important thing is that the engine keeps constant track of the players facing, has a good internal clock etc.. pulling these out of the various object in the engine wouldn't be too hard.)

string sFacing = oPlayer->GetDirectionalFacing();
int nDay = gEngine->GetWorldTime()->GetCurrentDay();
int nMoonPhase = gEngine->GetWorldTime()->GetCurrentMoonPhase();
float nModifier = 0.0f; // HQ bonus for proper conditions
int nNQFlag = 0; // less chance to break, off by default

switch(nDay)
{
case(oRecipe->GetHQDay()): // we're on the HQ day
nHQModifier += 0.1f;
break;
case(GetOpposite(oRecipe->GetHQDay()): // we're on the opposite day, bad to synth today!! silly crafter
nHQModifier -= 0.1f;
break;
}

if (nMoonPhase == CONSTANT_NEW_MOON || nMoonPhase == CONSTANT_FULL_MOON)
nHQModifier += 0.2f; // we're synthing on new/full moon, better chance of HQ

if (sFacing == oRecipe->GetHQFacing()) // we're facing direction for more HQ
nHQModifier += 0.1f;

if (sFacing == oRecipe->GetNQFacing()) // we're facing for less breakage
nNQFlag = 1;

int nCraftLevel = CalculateSkillCost(oRecipe) // what number do we need to not fail

// this next line is COMPLETELY made up as I don't do enough "high tier crafting" but you get the point
int nCurrCraft = CalculateRandomNumberGeneratorBasedOnSkillEtc(nModifier);

nDiff = (nCurrCraft - nCraftLevel);

if (nDiff < -10)
return CRITICAL FAILURE;
else if nDiff < 0
return FAILURE; // item loss calculated elsewhere
else if nDiff < 10
return NQ_SUCCESS'
else if nDiff < 20
return HQ_1_SUCCESS'
else if nDiff < 30
return HQ_2_SUCCESS;

It seems to be that SE has put a lot of time into their system to have good day/night/moon/etc calculations, I don't think it would be too hard for them to implement it into the crafting algorithm. But I'm just playing "devils (developers?) advocate here" ^^

It's just rumors.. but you can do that even if you don't believe in it np.

Obviously if they wanted is VERY easy to come up with a code like that, but the question is, have they done it ? No one probed it yet, so its all a myth until someone does.

Less Word, More Tests.

Wow a lot of lengthly debate on synthing here. I am just a lazy synther so I just base when I synth on when I acquire the ingredients. I will typically face the direction of the day of the week. The first time I tried to synth Dragon Leggings I was facing West because it was where I was standing in front of the AH. It was also Watersday and the Moon was somewhere up in the sky. I +1'd it and tossed it on the AH (Since I was standing there anyways)

Whatever you need to do so as to not feel that SE is screwing you is the best way. Happy Shynthing Everyone.

There was a test done a few years back on alla with willow wands.

The guy synthed thousands of stuff. Was a tier III synth so there is no data on Tier II, I, or 0.

Basically he found out that day/crystal/moonphase all play a part in success % and HQ %.

Basically new moon and darksday/day your crystal is weak too produced the best HQ%. while fullmoon lightsday/day your crystal is strong too produce the worst HQ%.

Direction is a personal thing. I believe it too work since i've leveled my crafts using Loyksyts methods/formulas and those take into account direction. But there is no math to back up direction.

I seem to get the same HQ rates no matter which direction I face. Cooking 95.7+2 crafting just HQ crab jugs using 1 water crystal and 2 blue tail. The only factor I noticed was the day of the week while facing a different direction every 2 synths I did. Certain days I got more NQ, while on Watersday I got 9/12 HQ. Just my findings. Direction from what I found does nothing.

A while ago a few LS members and I started gathering metrics to create charts so we could see what was going on, to answer the question definitively. It died out so I didn't develop anymore charts but the data we started collecting included:
Crystal
Day
Moon Phase
Direction
Skill Level
Skill Cap
Gear Bonus
Crafting Help
Hour of the day
Success/Fail
Skill up .x
NQ/HQx

We only recorded about 500 synths of various difficulty/direction/day/et cetera

I created a few charts as a PRO0F OF CONCEPT ONLY. Interest was lost pretty quick so i didn't do any more analysis on the data. If anyone is serious about crafting and is interested in filling out a web form while they're crafting to record the results (the form remembers most of the last entry to make it quick and easy), I'd be very interested in continuing this project. PM me if you're interested in this project.
I can't stress enough that these charts are proof of concept only, they use actual data but analysis was in a very early stage.

http://euphorictranquility.com/viewmetrics.cfm

I got 0/12 on Haubergeon +1 Last week during Darksday/Newmoon, then right after that I got 4/11 Hauberk +1 which just make it look how bad luck plays a role on whatever day.

I remembered i tried to Craft even inside the Cloister of Gales during Windsday Newmoon resulting in 1/20 LOL. SE made this just to have no sense at all. Something you can't even schedule.

i always use direction... like most state its free and cant hurt to try.

http://wiki.ffxiclopedia.org/wiki/Craftaholics_Anonymous/Guide/Advanced_Crafting

Something I think is worth a read, personally ive crated quite a bit, and 1: think its minimul effort to face a direction so why not as it cant hurt but 2: personally feel there is a difference and from a HQ an skilling perspective will change directions accordingly, especialy skilling, changing to the HQ direction (opposing) when getting close to cap on item.

Oh also:

http://ffxi.allakhazam.com/forum.html?forum=24&mid=1099896875297146423&num=10

This has served me very well.

Peace ^^b

Left foot or right?

I am more inclined to believe the random theory because if crafting was really as complex and deep as we give it credit for being, then why would there be usless HQ's like copper ingot HQ's.

I find the direction topic amusing really. I'm not sure I can recall all the times this discussion would come up in linkshell chat. It typically falls in line of someone asking which way to face for which crystal. This, as you can imagine usually begins quite the verbal battle between believers and non-believers. When I first started crafting I believed in the elemental compass. I, as I'm sure most other crafters, had it printed out and posted next to their comp/console.

Granted I don't have the experience of multiple high level crafts. I have tinkered with the concept and taken my own notes. I personally haven't found a specific yay or nay to the whole thing. Most people that I have had this discussion with tend to get their feathers ruffled when I say, "If it works for you great! As for me I don't buy it." I would have to agree to it being a placebo. I notice no difference in increased success rate, skill ups or HQ's facing in a direction based on the compass.

If you want a placebo, one that I find myself doing often... Craft in your Mog House lol! I'll be damned if I don't get more skill ups, fewer crit. fails and less breaks but more HQ's on desynths while in my MH. My common sense tells me that it's BS but I find I do it more for piece of mind lol.

I know we all reference guides for just about everything on this game. In the end I say do what works for you. Do what you feel is right. It's a game, so enjoy it! As for me, I'll be in my MH. XD

I tried to test this myself many moons ago when I was one of the servers sole suppliers or Wizard cookies back around 2004-2005. Over a period of almost a year I kept track of every sinle synth I made. It numbered near ~15,000 but I won't even attempt to give exact numbers here or statistics because I long dumped the file. Funny thing was every single HQ and NQ rate was damn near exactly the same for each day, direction, moonphase ... some where near 0.005% different but that could have been because my test phase wasn't large enough.

It's random, plain and simple.

It's all BS.

That being said. ME personally i drink the blood of three virgins, face west and /panic 5x before any synth. HQ every time.

I thought of a theory about quality of materials. I know its a long shot tho.

example: Silk from pashow, better then Saruta. ><

They should make an MMO that is insanely complicated and nuanced like people presume this game to be. There is obviously a market for it.

Day of the Week def has the strongest influence. I have a PhD in statistics and have done research on this. As far as any other hints, you're on your own... can't give away all the secrets.

Crafts
Smithing 60
Clothcraft 60
Alchemy 60
Woodworking 60
Goldsmithing 97 + 5
Leathercrafting 60
Bonecraft 45
Cooking 11
Fishing 9

Alchemy on Mule 98 + 5

IMO, those threads were both pretty common myth "knowledge" reads, and anyone who has ever played blm would know the elemental weaknesses and what elements trump what other elements..

The alla one about days was kinda off in my book, it neglected some days for some crystals that do amazingly well, for instance earth crystal on watersday, i want to know why it is that this day trumps many others even though the elements are relatively neutral and are both a part of the dark elements but pop a lot of hq for me.

I've pulled out many many tier 2, tier 1 and every single tier 0 synth i have ever made popped on a watersday? coincidence, maybe but thats my day.

Another tricky one is using earth crystal on lightningsday, or any other crystal that is stronger than the element of that day. Why is it it's typically high NQ and low break days to synth, but on occassion its just the opposite, there is more to it than just days for sure, but how do you know if "moon?" is right for it to be a good day to craft a stronger crystal on a weaker day?

Most crafters aiming for HQ would ignore or not craft on these kind of days, but i've run batches of tier 1 synths and found it can potentially be a great time for HQ, but not always, and most often it's not.

I've been synthing for 3-4yrs and there is something else that is obviously to this besides just days, and i do not ignore certain days, because in my experience any day of week can be good, but i cant figure out this other factor. I discount direction because, well i used to turn a direction for years and its never seemed obvious to the eye, or even if i parsed that it helps at all.

Another factor in synthing that many many people will overlook, everyone always debates crap like direction, well imo there is no reason for me to believe that that works, but time of day, how do you personally do it? I shoot for synthing past 1800 or before 400, night time seems to do me best, i only ask this because to me it does seem to be relevant, i've sat for an entire game length and spammed before and found time to possibly be a major factor.

My thought on this was that perhaps the daytime favors the light elements more whereas night being absense of light would favor more of the dark elements, again this is just my opinion, but not many pose questions about this.

No offense to peope debating other 4-5yr old myths but i'd like to know others opinions of what my experiences are all about. I've noticed there to seem to be some pattern of perhaps ingame weeks having certain elemental properties as well as the days within that week.

I think that perhaps time of day and ingame weeks or moon phases having possible correlation with certain elements needs more of a look into it than directional synthing mythology.

Might sound far fetched but i dont think that it isn't just as simple as Day + moon phase, people do however debate that simply turning your toon one way will provide better results though, bam HQ, so hey, why not.

I have no parses or anything but to me it seems obvious that there is a third factor besides just day and moon.

Sometimes a certain moon % on a certain day will kick *** and the next time its that same conditions i cant even HQ tier 3.

I did read a forum post long ago that posed similar theory, but for the life of me i can't find it, i'm pretty sure it was on alla

Perhaps my observations just lead to conclusion that it truly is pure randomness, which i honestly somewhat believe but i dont think thats the case because it seems to be recurring possibly cycling through ingame weeks, *** if i know, i'll never break (HQ code) lol.

P.S sorry for the long post, it may be repetitive too, i'm pretty tired i hope it made sense.

The only thing I have "Noticed", which could be all coincidence, is I seem to keep the item on the day of the earths crystal during breaks a lot more than on off days. (Mainly notice with lightning crystals on desynths) Not sure that came out to make any sense, it is late.

But Direction/Moon Phase/Day on HQ% has never shown to make a difference. I mainly work with tier0 and tier 1 HQs, if it does make a difference, it is so crazy small that is isn't worth waiting the time. I think a lot of it is a placebo effect for people. If you mostly craft under "Perfect" conditions, than of course most of your HQs will be during that. If you craft completly random, than your HQ% will probably be completly random.

If it doesn't matter it can't hurt so I do it anyways.

This is like the Treasure Hunter hidden effect from Lucky egg, Wild Rabbit Tail, Four Leaf Mandragora bud and Millionaire Desk (all dissmissed by SE on Fan Fest 2007) But unlike Treasure Hunter, SE hasnt give the definitive answer to this, so just in case, ill keep facing to wherever I believe i should be facing ^.~

To me direction does seem to matter, could be just luck, but recently i went 0/4 on HQ staffs, changed direction and went 2/4. Dunno, but through out my time crafting, direction has seem to be a factor for both skill ups and HQ's. Just my thoughts.

Assuming that there are crafting directions, which at a bear minimum people can observe the elemental directions in the sky (plus doesn't an NPC say something about crafting at the "right" time). Sure that could all be an illusion, but look how SE does its work;

I think that most of the people here are expecting some huge whopping difference that is instantaneously noticeable.

Look at merits, +1% in most cases.
Look at rare item drops 1% chance.
Look at mining rare ores, 1% again.

I honestly don't believe that you can determine the advantage of crafting directions especially if the implementation is based off a single percent.

SE uses mathematical algorithms as there is not a GM sitting and watching every craft and determining if their craft "should" be successful this time. In the algorithm you would be inserting a +1% chance of success into something that is completely random. Even after you increase the odds, the result is completely random. Someone could theoretically be at level 100 crafting in woodworking and fail arrowwood lumber (level 2) 100 out of 100 times, because their is no guarantee of success, the polar opposite is also true as another person could go 100 out of 100 successes.

Since everything is random, even with an increase of a 1% chance, the same could be true for going 10,000 out of 10,000 or even 100,000. Probability states that we will never see that happen.

For calculus and statistics we used to do things with dice a lot. Roll a dice 60 times and see what the odds are. I can state matter of factly that even though we know the odds should be 10 of each number, I, nor anyone in the class ever rolled 60 times and had the exact expected result.

No matter how many trial and error tests you, even if you are upwards of 100,000 syntheses, you will never know if that 1% extra success really mattered, because you simply cannot know for certain whether or not you are on the positive or negative side of randomness and probability.

One of my JP friends has made six or seven Aristocrat's Coats and everytime she synths, she puts on the elemental staff of the crystal she's using. I have a Goldsmither who does the exact same thing. Just an observation.

http://ffxi.lokyst.net/timer/crafttimer.html

Use it love it

347 Trumpet ring synths, Wind crystal facing East
8 HQ's & 17 Breaks
T0 is commonly believed 1/64? 1.5625%
8/347 equates to 2.3054%

Only takes a second and a grain of salt to turn a direction

yeah but tier 0 is so random it could be purely coincidental, I myself have gone 1/200 on koenig shields and yes i faced "HQ direction" everytime, I have plenty of crafting experience that i can say.. it doesn't do crap for me, if it works for you cool, but there is no hard evidence to suggest that this theory is without a doubt true.

continue spamming trumpet rings long enough and i'm sure those averages will fall, call me a pessimist, but i have always found that the only thing that always holds true is hq averages because of the way the game works off numbers, as does any programming.. I wish i could sit down and spam tier 0's long enough to get a solid set of averages for myself but every T0 item i can make is 1-500k/synth :(