Directions For Hq And Skillup

I've covered my position on Eruntalon's data before. As for your own data, parse or gtfo. Eyeballing is notoriously inaccurate.

I'll chime in as a 8 year developer of MMO's, and why professional experience makes me extremely skeptical of crafting rumors.

In every MMO to date that I've worked on directly (3 of them), the players have managed to come up with guides, equations, and explanations for world behavior that is infinitely more complex than the actual algorithm. We've had enormous dev meetings and whole industry summits trying to explain this inevitable behavior. The root of this phenomenon lies in a few different areas.

The problem lies in the fact that MMO development is hard. There are no other kinds of games out there that have as many asynchronously interacting systems. Features are exponentially harder to implement in an MMO than in a single-player game. The teams are generally many times larger, and the implementation of proposed features is run through a much more strict filter about money investment to value-add tradeoffs. Otherwise, it's very easy to keep implementing features and additional complexity in the interests of game "depth," and then later realizing you've coded something so complex that you can't even get to release. I've seen dozens of MMO's get canceled after falling into this trap.

This is a fancy way of saying that there is no reason for FF to have any of these layers of complexity on its crafting system. In fact, it would have made horrific business sense for them to even consider it. The amount of players who gain value from the complexity is nowhere near the costs to implement in terms of design, coding, and QA manpower. Not to mention that once such an overly complex system is in place, the simple act of even adding a single item to the game (and testing all possible combinations of factors to make sure you're not introducing an exploit or economic problem) takes weeks of QA time, and SE has shown nothing to indicate that they're working under this amount of delay.

However, players in MMO's tend to become very possessive of their accomplishments and perceived knowledge about the game they play. Players are more inclined, by human nature, to believe that their actions and accomplishments in-game require substantially more knowledge, skill, and tenacity than they really do. Players don't like to believe in randomness, and they will, by nature attempt to minimize the perceived effect of randomness on their accomplishments as much as possible. Randomness, to some extent, trivializes their perceived influence on the game, reduces their perceived ownership/investment, and minimizes many of their perceived accomplishments. So they will instinctively look for patterns and explanations for events that do not rely on randomness.

Confirmation bias also plays a role. Humans beings of all sorts are more inclined to make mental note of, and remember, statistical trials that validated their hypothesis than those that went against it. For example, let's say someone sets up the right moon phase, direction, crystal type, and everything correctly. They get 8 HQ's in a row. Then they try again another day where the moon phase and direction are wrong. They get 8 HQ's in a row. Human nature tends to see the first scenario as "Ah hah, I knew it!" and the second one as "Wow, I musta just gotten really lucky." A week later while posting on a board, they will remember the first scenario and post about it, but the second scenario will slip their mind as unimportant, or a fluke of chance.

No MMO to date has implemented a crafting system nearly as complex as the players claim FF's is. By several orders of magnitude. And in my experience and professional opinion, such a system would never be approved by the game's Producers. There is no business reason to do so.

However, all MMO's to date have had player theories about game systems equally as complex as this one. In most cases, players actually do develop theories and equations that seem to pan out with example data. But always, always, these theories are exaggerating the number of variables and failing to realize that the same statistical results can be achieved with only 1-2 variables and a good random number generator instead.

The point of my post wasn't to say the crafting complexity couldn't be. Rather, I was simply saying why as a developer of MMO's myself, I would be extremely skeptical if there were that many independent variables. And that also, trying to demonstrate why "I tried X trials and there appears to be a pattern" does not, in any way, determine what precisely the algorithm is. It means very little. Players simply can't know how the system works internally with 100% accuracy -- they can only interpolate the data backwards in an attempt to find a formula that appears to work.

In most MMO's, such a level of perceived complexity can be, and usually is, achieved through far less variables than players believe are involved in FF's crafting system. But that regardless, players are inclined to believe in greater complexity anyway, due to issues of confirmation bias and perceived investment in their characters and the product in general.

I don't give a damn if you spin counterclockwise on your left elbow 3 times while praying to Carbuncle before crafting, just don't pass off the idea that it works as reliable information.

I don't give a damn if you spin counterclockwise on your left elbow 3 times while praying to Carbuncle before crafting, just don't pass off the idea that it works as reliable information.

In most MMO's, such a level of perceived complexity can be, and usually is, achieved through far less variables than players believe are involved in FF's crafting system. But that regardless, players are inclined to believe in greater complexity anyway, due to issues of confirmation bias and perceived investment in their characters and the product in general.

Is it just me or is this sort of a double standard? You don't want people to pass off the 'crafting complexities' (nice way to sum up everything without having to say direction, moon phase etc, thanks for that, I'll be using that from now on) as accurate and reliable, but you stand on the side that is adamant as saying that it is unreliable. Why is your opinion (which is all it is at this point, until it has once and for all been proven rock solid one way or the other) any more reliable than anyone else's? What makes your opinion on the matter so much more appropriate for spreading?

I'm not trying to stir up an argument... or get down into it with you over this.. I've just noticed over my years in the game, that when it comes to this subject, there is a lot of double standards, mostly on the side who feel that the complexities are non-existent, yet the ones who claim it works generally have a 'if you don't want to use/believe it, then don't' attitude..

I also take care of what I personally say when it comes to this matter, I've never said that it works.. I say in my experiences, it's up to the reader to decide whether or not to follow my methods/ideas.. I never push the idea off on anyone, nor do I actively try to convince anyone that it works..

Yes, many people do the "I don't believe in direction, but I'll do it anyway just in case." That doesn't exactly help the superstition go away.

I don't "believe" and I don't pay any attention to it. I have good and bad streaks just like everyone else. It's all random.

Perhaps the best example I can give to really back up Jaerik's very well explained post (I'm a programmer myself) is somewhat recently when they talked about Treasure Hunter at one of the conventions. They finally dispelled all the crap about last-hit from a thief, 4 leaf clovers, etc. ALL of it was crap. The ONLY thing that matters is the TH job trait (the only exception being TH4 > TH3 > TH2 > TH1 and that they don't stack). Years and dozens of theories all gone in an instant.

Given how similar TH and crafting are in terms of luck, wouldn't it make more sense that crafting is, at the core, a pretty simple system? There are only two things that affect crafting - crafting skill (inc. support and/or equip) and moghancement/moglification. That's it. The rest is non-existant.

jumping on one foot