Choose-your-boss Sinister Reign

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Choose-your-boss Sinister Reign
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 Ragnarok.Sekundes
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By Ragnarok.Sekundes 2018-10-12 07:54:50
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DirectX said: »
For example: How about if you could trade 10 of one item to the NPC and receive a fully augmented one back?
It would be nice to see some hard cap on the RNG. If it is indeed a 10% drop rate and you have 20% chance of getting the item you want(I think it may be 25% chance for those that don't drop a cipher but I'm not sure if it's an even distribution). That's a 1/50 chance of even seeing the item you want. If it's a 25% chance for the non-cipher fights, that's a 1/40 chance of seeing what you want.


So, even with your suggestion, it would take an avg of 500(or 400) runs and 2.5 mil(2mil) bayld to get one perfect.

I wish I had the chances of getting a perfect from the old method and new method so I could figure out if it's worth it to be using this method.
 Ragnarok.Inx
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By Ragnarok.Inx 2018-10-12 08:30:02
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I think they should've worked the trade-off a bit better with the single-boss SR, like say 10k bayld per run but with a better than 10% chance of loot.

I can see good reasoning for not making the original path redundant, but the current situation isn't very appealing.

Its not like Vagary where there's at least some utility for new players needing to unlock reforged empy gear, single-boss SR as it stands is a so-so BC-system for soloers but mainly just adds congestion.
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2018-10-12 08:32:50
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Original way is bad, new way is significantly worse but faster.

If it takes 10 minutes to kill the 3 mobs and you only get a max aug on the 10th run it's 2 hours burnt.

If it takes 1 minute to kill Ingrid you should almost certainly get your item in the same 2 hours. Assuming, zero congestion, and you don't *** around with exiting/entering maximizing efficiency.

Unfortunately you lose all your optimization due to inability to enter and exit in an efficient manner.

It would've been really cool to just let you fight over and over (legion style) until you timed out for better augs (congestion).
 Ragnarok.Inx
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By Ragnarok.Inx 2018-10-12 09:07:52
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The original route was pretty damn generous in terms of reward for time spent, its easy to forget but at the time most of the NM's in there dropped some very competitive pieces. Add on the trusts and it was an event where you got showered with options on your first few clears.

The problem, as with similarly generous content like Skirmish, was that it got burned through incredibly quickly.
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2018-10-12 09:30:54
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Ragnarok.Inx said: »
The problem, as with similarly generousaugmented content like Skirmish oseem, is that players insist upon only having the best and it results in an excessive grind for a piece of very old gear.
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 Lakshmi.Buukki
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2018-10-12 09:44:46
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I wish they changed the A.M.A.N. Reclaimer to a Poach Shop, where you could trade/sell items back to it (including augments/partials/capped etc), and players across the server could visit the poach shop and buy items players put up there. You wouldn't get anything in return besides the copper voucher accrual, but it would have some use for just tossing away capped SR/UNM gear. It would provide a fair-gear exchange service to players.

I have tossed at least 5 fanatics and 3 capped Samnuha Tights in the he past 6 months, I know others have had similar scenarios. I die a little bit inside when I have to throw an item away for 60%/copper voucher, when I know there's someone who could use it.
 Shiva.Flowen
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By Shiva.Flowen 2018-10-12 10:10:17
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Asura.Eiryl said: »
If it takes 1 minute to kill Ingrid you should almost certainly get your item in the same 2 hours. Assuming, zero congestion, and you don't *** around with exiting/entering maximizing efficiency.

No... Drop rate of decanter is likely 10%, there's an assumptive drop rate of the item you want of 1/7 (gil, bayld, cipher, 4 gear pieces) and chance of perfect augs seems to be at best, marginally better than old SR (if old was 1/10, lets say 1/8).

So 560 Ingrid kills to get a perfect tam.

New SR is broken and wouldn't be surprised if there's maintenance to fix it (if this is actually how SE intended this to go it is honestly one of the worst changes they have made to an existing event in all time)
 Lakshmi.Buukki
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2018-10-12 10:25:09
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Shiva.Flowen said: »
New SR is broken and wouldn't be surprised if there's maintenance to fix it

Sir...you really don't get it, do you? SE's most recent way of addressing player issues with a specific content is generally one of two methods (sometimes both):

Create an alternative route to address the <issue>
Create a campaign that doubles drops or makes it "how it should be" so you're not so mad about being finessed.

Examples of Content Band-Aid jobs:

Omen gave 2-3 cards max originally, with only 6 people limit. This greatly limited who was able to upgrade AF+3 armor, so SE responded by expanding the amount of people you could bring (cuz strategies limited jobs at first), and then added an alternative route which yielded 1-2 more cards. Then they went the extra step to make a campaign that gave you double cards for your troubles. The campaign rate of cards is actually what the normal rate should be, but they finessed by intentionally making it a grind so players could look forward to the campaigns.

Dynamis-D originally was not a highly supported content. Shard drop rates were terrible. Instead of just doubling drop rates to what they should be, they allowed you to trade and sell them. Then they made a campaign to give you personal loots, which temporarily improved shard supply.

Capacity points upon initial release were GAR.BAGE. They actually thought people would do Incursion for them, but that fizzled out. So in order to address the horrible rate, they made sure to give capes that increased CP acquisition. They made ROE incentives to increase your numbers, and then they made the best campaigns ever, which gave very good CP rate for the time it was up.

Certain crafting/NM pop supplies were rare/hard to get. Create Login campaigns where these items flourish in massive supplies, giving players improved chances for Defending Rings.

In all instances, SE never truly "fixed" the underlying issue of the content. They just covered it up with a bandaid job by making an alternative or introducing a campaign to temporarily cover the bad implementation. They know exactly what they are doing here. All of these reports of bad decanter drop rates are just setting up for an upcoming campaign, where, for a time, you'll get amazing drops, but then you'll forget how initially bad the drop rate really was. I wouldn't get my hopes up for a drop rate fix because this looks exactly how SE intended for it to perform.

Asura.Eiryl said: »
don't forget to praise them when they make the campaign in November, doubling drop rates.


The campaigns are really SEs Bread and Butter. They keep you coming back, or re-subscribing. AMAN trove resetting monthly is intentional so players have to come back every month to attempt it. Business decisions here.
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 Shiva.Humpo
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By Shiva.Humpo 2018-10-12 10:34:35
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Lakshmi.Buukki said: »
Asura.Eiryl said: »
don't forget to praise them when they make the campaign in November, doubling drop rates.


The campaigns are really SEs Bread and Butter. They keep you coming back, or re-subscribing. AMAN trove resetting monthly is intentional so players have to come back every month to attempt it. Business decisions here.

The biggest problem with AMAN trove being once a month is even with it being new content, I have already forgotten about it existing till I saw people shouting to buy orbs. Weekly to keep us logging back in every week would have been a much better option but that doesn't fit SE logic.

I think their logic was to make us do besieged and other content again. HA! I loved some of the ANV keys. Get signet? OK! Eat 5 foods and 5 antacids every week? OK! But some of them, like the 100 exp chain? ehhh. I'll activate it and see how the week goes. Go farm a Maat pop and kill him..? ehhh to much running around. Do a campaign battle..? I don't even remember what those are!
 Lakshmi.Buukki
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2018-10-12 10:40:08
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A monthly shot at a rare body/regal item is worth the resub for some. Billing Cycle lasts a month, in order to take advantage of the content, you have to keep resubbing. Weekly reset would give too many options to get rare stuff and wouldn't keep a monthly supply of resubs. It's business decision. Similar to login campaigns, except you have to play every day to take advantage of that content.
 Shiva.Flowen
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By Shiva.Flowen 2018-10-12 11:01:38
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Lakshmi.Buukki said: »
Examples of Content Band-Aid jobs:

I agree that campaigns are a business decision to tempt people to re-sub. However, every example you listed is still fruitful without a campaign, so you are missing the point.

The patch notes said "we've addressed the players frustrations that enemies are chosen at random". New SR is actually worse for targeting the item you want than the old one, so they have made it possible to fight the enemy you want but actually have worse overall odds of achieving what people wanted to fight the enemy for anyway (aka completely missed the point).

So the only reason you would do the new SR outside a campaign is because you cant be bothered to make a party/cant solo old SR. This doesn't address the communities complaint about SR (that it was too random); it is actually worse on RNG scale. So what other examples are there of revamped, end-game/i119 events that are only worth doing if there's a campaign on?
 Lakshmi.Buukki
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2018-10-12 11:12:59
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I didn't say anything about them being fruitful or not. I never said "this content isnt worth doing if there's not a campaign for it". You said this. I'm not missing the point at all. I'm saying:

- Players screams "FIX THIS" <content>
SE responds by "Okay, here's an alternate path" OR "Here's a campaign to fix <content>

The players are going to do the content regardless of whether theres a campaign or not, because they always have. Otherwise they would really fix the content. Stuff like UNM, Delve, SR, CP are always ongoing, because they are necessary. People won't stop doing them because there's something off with drop rates. They'll keep doing it while complaining, and then forget the frustrations as soon as a campaign drops. But SE also won't fix anything out of sheer player complaints of drop rates. That can be addressed through a campaign.

I disagree that new SR is "worse". I have explained at least a half dozen times how it's an alternative and it's better for some players, not all. Path 1 is better for 85% of people who need a little of everything. Path 2 is better for that small portion of players who only need one or two items, and they'd rather roll the dice on a targeted chance vs a random NM pop. You're just not understanding the logic in the new path. It is better, just not in the way you wish it would be.
 Fenrir.Snaps
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By Fenrir.Snaps 2018-10-12 11:17:56
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I don't think you can conclusively say that the new route is better for any player. From what I'm seeing, the odds of getting a drop are low and the odds of getting a capped item are still low. I'm not convinced that you'll get the item you want faster this way.
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2018-10-12 11:25:28
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Fenrir.Snaps said: »
I don't think you can conclusively say that the new route is better for any player

You're right Snaps, I can't blanket that statement, so let me clarify my words. I'm just trying to 'splaine the SE logic on how they intended to address the complaints of the random nature of not getting the boss you want. They addressed it. They allowed you to pick your boss now so you know what you will be getting. I can't put any numbers on the drops and say what is better from a pure numbers perspective, I'm just saying the path choice may be better if you have a singular goal in mind. And it's based on what the player is after.

Whether Path 1 or 2 is "faster" is impossible to gauge. But as a player who might only want Samnuha Tights and Coat, spamming consecutive Teodors in my mind is "better" than fighting random bosses for a chance to see Teodor, only to see Morimars and Rosultia for the entire 3-boss run. Another person might not like those odds. Player decides what risk they are willing to take, and only time will tell how long it will take for either path.
 Shiva.Flowen
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By Shiva.Flowen 2018-10-12 14:06:05
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Lakshmi.Buukki said: »
I didn't say anything about them being fruitful or not. I never said "this content isnt worth doing if there's not a campaign for it". You said this. I'm not missing the point at all. I'm saying:

- Players screams "FIX THIS" <content>
SE responds by "Okay, here's an alternate path" OR "Here's a campaign to fix <content>

The players are going to do the content regardless of whether theres a campaign or not, because they always have. Otherwise they would really fix the content. Stuff like UNM, Delve, SR, CP are always ongoing, because they are necessary. People won't stop doing them because there's something off with drop rates. They'll keep doing it while complaining, and then forget the frustrations as soon as a campaign drops. But SE also won't fix anything out of sheer player complaints of drop rates. That can be addressed through a campaign.

I disagree that new SR is "worse". I have explained at least a half dozen times how it's an alternative and it's better for some players, not all. Path 1 is better for 85% of people who need a little of everything. Path 2 is better for that small portion of players who only need one or two items, and they'd rather roll the dice on a targeted chance vs a random NM pop. You're just not understanding the logic in the new path. It is better, just not in the way you wish it would be.

That's kind of the point i'm making.. The new SR seems unique in that they have added an event that has no reason to do unless there's a campaign. All other monthly campaigns are "the same event but more worth your while" type boosts, to an event which doing outside of campaign is still an effective means to achieve what you are after (albeit slower outside campaign).

In the current state, it seems more effective to achieve the same result, even if that result is a single piece of equipment with perf augs, by doing old SR. For this reason its not "SE's recent way" as you suggest, hence why I said it seems broken.

The only logic in the new path is the opportunity to pop in now and again without the commitment of making a party and roll the dice. You need to do approx twice as many single boss runs as you do 3 boss runs to have the same shot at a single perf aug (assuming currently assumed and observed drop rates/aug rates). By doing single boss runs you miss out on delve mats (potentially millions of gil) and spend twice the bayld (which is very important, as you have to spend time farming this bayld, taking away from the time difference which appears the only benefit of a single boss run). When you take into account the entry/loading process time is exactly the same + double the bayld farming time there is no way you can blast through more than twice the single boss runs for it to be worth it. And that doesn't take into consideration getting other gear and CP bonus.
 Shiva.Flowen
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By Shiva.Flowen 2018-10-12 14:17:35
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Lakshmi.Buukki said: »
spamming consecutive Teodors in my mind is "better" than fighting random bosses for a chance to see Teodor,

This is the whole issue - Simplified, 1/3 chance to see Teodor with a 100% drop rate is better then 100% chance to see Teodor with a 10% drop rate (minus 1k balyd return option, minus CP, minus potentially valuable crafting mat slot). Yes they stated the odds of a better aug is increased, but it doesn't appear to be enough to outweigh the odds stated above.
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By Candlejack 2018-10-12 14:20:29
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Here's a boss that could be chosen: A lv.1 rabbit.
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2018-10-12 14:24:31
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Shiva.Flowen said: »
roll the dice.

What I said before the update. Working. As. Intended
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2018-10-12 14:26:36
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Shiva.Flowen said: »
Simplified, 1/3 chance to see Teodor with a 100% drop rate is better then 100% chance to see Teodor with a 10% drop rate

Show me the numbers to prove this otherwise your opinion on which is better is entirely subjective just like mine is
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By Phoenix.Dabackpack 2018-10-12 14:32:59
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given you only care about Teodor

Old SR: 7 min full runs * 1/3 chance of Teodor * 100% drop = 21 minutes per Teodor drop

New SR: 3 min full run * 100% chance of Teodor * 10% drop = 30 mins per Teodor drop

depending on your killspeed Old SR might be faster still

above times consider the time to enter, buff, etc
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2018-10-12 14:42:00
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It definitely isn't 3 minutes for one mob, only rolls would make it take more than 30 seconds and tbh it's not even worth waiting for rolls. Just kill it as fast as possible.

Proshell/haste carry over, drop a bubble and zerg it, one roll

(don't solo it.) Entrance is the gatekeeper
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By Asura.Suteru 2018-10-12 14:43:27
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RNG is RNG and Teodor only evens out to 1/3 over like 100 runs. I did like 15 runs in a row a few weeks ago and only got Teodor for one of them.
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2018-10-12 14:45:55
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Is this a party of 6 Dabackpack? You're saying it takes 3 minutes to kill one monster with 6 people, and 7 minutes to kill 3 monsters with the same group? I killed Ingrid in 1:30~2min solo on MNK after casting trusts and engaging right away, without buffs (besides trust ***). Can't see a 6-person fight taking 3min to clear it, that seems high.
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By Shiva.Flowen 2018-10-12 14:57:14
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Lakshmi.Buukki said: »
Shiva.Flowen said: »
Simplified, 1/3 chance to see Teodor with a 100% drop rate is better then 100% chance to see Teodor with a 10% drop rate

Show me the numbers to prove this otherwise your opinion on which is better is entirely subjective just like mine is

I agree, which is why I have stated based on assumed rates etc etc.

For reference, these are the numbers I am making my opinions on:

OLD SR: 0.33 (chance of desired encounter) * 0.25 (chance of desired gear) *0.05 (approximate 5% chance of perf. aug) = 303 old SR to get your desired gear with perfect augs

NEW SR: 0.1 (Chance of getting a decanter, assumed based on reports in this thread) * 1/6 (Chance of gear your want when bayld and gil are in the same pool) * 0.1 (assuming double normal chance at a perfect aug) = 600 new SR runs to get your desired gear with perfect aug.

So assuming twice the perfect aug rate (doesnt feel as high as that to me but may well be), you could assume it takes twice the single boss runs to get your item. If you assume you can do twice as many in the same time (including entry/loading times which limits your rate), it is only equal to old SR, not taking into account: bayld farming time (you are burning it at twice the rate and farming bayld takes time),other gear, CP, crafting mats, bayld return.
 Sylph.Dravidian
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By Sylph.Dravidian 2018-10-12 15:01:17
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I think the new system will allow them to create possible campaigns easier.
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By Lakshmi.Buukki 2018-10-12 15:06:03
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Not going to get into a RNG vs RNG 2.0 debate because I already explained the finesse job before this was rolled out. Everything you said I already explained.

Lakshmi.Buukki said: »
So it might end up being something stupid like 25% of seeing spoils, and THEN you still need it to be the item you want, and THEN it needs to be capped.

This is a finesse job entirely. They just re-organized the order of chance to give you better different odds. its still RNG at the end of the day. I don't think this path is any different, just better odds at zeroing in on what you want, but with the possibility of not getting anything (aka wasting bayld). At least in standard route, you do get some gil sellables or some stuff you can convert.

I have a really hard time believing it would take almost two times as many runs as the original route, as that would be absurd. Even still, let's assume it was.
Simplified: It went from being "100% chance of getting something" to "low chance of getting exactly what you want".

Rearranged odds.
 Asura.Eiryl
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By Asura.Eiryl 2018-10-12 15:10:52
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He's mostly right, it would take more kills. The offset is you kill faster.

Its faster to kill 500 Teodors single, than it is to kill 100 teodors in old style. Both of those scenarios (should*) result in a capped tights but one is faster.
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By Fenrir.Snaps 2018-10-12 15:52:23
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That's assuming you have infinite bayld. You have to weigh whatever time you save using the single path with how long it takes to farm the additional bayld you'll burn.
 Leviathan.Comeatmebro
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By Leviathan.Comeatmebro 2018-10-12 15:55:23
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new route is super simple to bot for 1 player with trusts, if you have bayld and some programming knowledge that's a plus i guess(until someone is dumb enough to share and it becomes a 20 min entrance queue)

as much as i wanted it to be viable, i'm going to have to agree that the rates seem to be inadequate and it's seeming more likely it will be a 'solo path' than an 'item targeting path' as it was advertised

10% rate sounds low, but honestly everyone's just throwing out *** numbers and unless someone gets 1000~ samples (only 167 runs with a party!) with data accurately recorded it'd be pretty hard to say for sure how viable it is
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By Fenrir.Snaps 2018-10-12 16:00:21
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Martel's numbers (13/136) put it at 9.56% with a 95% confidence interval of 5.19%~15.79%.
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