How Long Till The Economy Fails

If you consider the fact the game is not growing. You realize that sooner or later the supply of item X will over shadow the demand of item X and when that happens it won just be item X it will everything. so considering this how long until the economy fails. Just something to consider.

Umm... Your approximately 3 years behind with this thread. The economy is already going down. There's far too much 100 crafters for each craft nowadays, thus causing an over supply in goods.

Haven't you realized the raw materials to make most expensive HQ crafts cost more than the end result?
Nowadays if you don't HQ your most likely to take a loss.

This is why SE implemented the Augment system, in an attempt to get rid of the excess items. Which still didn't do anything at all. Not even stabalize it for that matter.

So yes, the ffxi economy is already full of fail.

I meant a total and complete crash think 1920s US, or when ever that big economy fail was.

Well one of 2 things will happen. The economy crashes on each server and that's when SE decides to merge servers or SE merges servers before the crash takes place and it gets better.

lol, there will never be a total complete crash. You are relating a virtual world to RL in a non-congruent way. In ffxi, we will always have RMT and NPC vendors. RMT, people will trade real money for gil. NPC vendors give gil for crap items.

The economic downfall of the US was due to lack of jobs, the ffxi community is independendt of such a failure.

I'm going to be straight up when I say this

"The RMT, and the fact we can NPC stuff for gil, will keep this game from ever "crashing" as you think it will"

oh well that is good.

There will on the other hand be huge price influxes but never will you find a line of ffxi players standing outside a "<insertname here> Kitchen" asking for food because we have no gil, hence, no this game wont crash the way the US did in the Great depression.

Uh lol. You're dead wrong. With enough people leaving the game, you're going to see a market crash. How are you going to buy anything if there is no supply? How are you going to sell anything if there's no demand? Sure you can make miniscule amounts of gil by NPCing ***but the larger portion of the population will be in serious trouble because they rely on the AH for their income.

i see. I just figured that items like hagun and such that people constantly farm are going to become so common place that they are not even worth farming any more.

Before server merge i think SE might try just to merge all the AHs into 1 big 1.

I most certainly am not dead wrong. You just need to sign up for Economics 101.

RMT will ALWAYS be around. Even if there is one server open. They will ALWAYS sell gil.

There is never "no demand" for something. There is just a change "in demand."

Prices will eventually regulate themselves to adjust the low "miniscule" amounts of gil left.

IE. Haubies will be 10k, blau dolch'es will be 100k, The norm gil to make an hour will be 5k~

etc.

The prices will not stay at their current rate. They will as I stated before, have DIFFERENT influxes within them. Back then a Shair'Manteel was 50Million gil, and a Scorpion Harness was 4Million gil NQ. Nowadays ones 5MIL and the others like 40k. See the relation?

Or need I explain further.

Take a look at the FFAH CPI

Farming isn't nearly as "efficient" as it once was, and as was pointed out materials to make most things cost more than the final product.

FF economy has become stagnant, but with some of the changes (including augmenting) SE has taken steps to reduce the problem.

You can't resolve the problem completely, mostly because of the potency & popularity of rare/ex items where even the best player made/sallable items are outpaced by them.

Sadly the best way to make gill is to sell r/ex items such a ZNMs drops, limbus, ect.

Apparently I need to explain something to you. Just because RMT exist and continue to do so does not mean people will utilize them. And yes there is such a thing as no demand. As the OP used for his example, once everyone on the server has a Hagun, there will be no demand. Seeing as the servers are shrinking and Haguns have been around for quite a while, this is getting to be a little more realistic. As for your example: the opposite is going to be true. Less people will almost certainly hurt the supply. And as any good economist can tell you, less supply = more money. The supply on the materials to make those items is going to dwindle and as it does, you're going to see a bigger price hike.

So no matter what the economy will survive. That is a good thing to know. But i still remember a few years back, when on my sever everything crashed. Was nice made the rich richer and the poor poorer.

The economy will survive as SE won't let it crash again. If it looks like things are taking a turn for the worst, SE will step in and save the day by doing something. The game still makes them money so they do care that the game continues.

lets hope.

Wow just wow, how much do you fail? Let's be honest have you ever taken economics in college?
I have not the time, nor the energy to be dealing with such radical examples as the ones you propose.

Let me just pick apart the example you used before I stop arguing with someone who apparently doesn't know the first thing about economics.

"As the OP used for his example, once everyone on the server has a Hagun, there will be no demand. Seeing as the servers are shrinking and Haguns have been around for quite a while, this is getting to be a little more realistic."

Couldn't be a more fallicious example than this. You are excluding soo much factors, and filling your examples full of assumptions.
A. Not everyone in the server needs a Hagun.
B. Not everyone in the server can afford a Hagun.
C. Not everyone in the server will be able to afford a Hagun in their lifetime.
D. Not every Hagun remains on the server for all of its life once it has been won from the ENM. (i.e people quit with their haguns still on their chars!)
E. Not everyone knows how to get a hagun! (yes its true)

AND THE LIST GOES ON AND ON.

So, as I said before I'm going to stop wasting my time with such a close minded individual and leave you with this. An economy will always regulate itself. No matter what. It will keep moving. Especially a virtual economy which can ALWAYS produce gil. Even if RMT's were to die, you can always NPC stuff for gil and As I said before, the prices will regulate themselves accordingly.

So rather than making such poignant assumptions to argue your points with, go to your counselor and ask for a course on the basics of economics.

Wow. It doesn't take an economist to see the holes in your little lesson. You apparently fail at common sense and simple deduction.

If they don't need a Hagun, then why bring it up? They're not buying another one so no demand here.

If they can't afford one, they'll either give up trying to get one or they'll get one thus making it no longer needed. So eventually no demand either way.

If they can't ever possibly hope to afford one, no demand from this group either.

If people leave, the character also leaves along with the Hagun. Welp, no demand here either.

Just because they don't know how to get a Hagun doesn't mean they can't *Gasp* buy one off the AH! Holy Jeez! No demand here eventually (They either buy one or not).

Now to counter your moot arguement. You also don't take into consideration that there are people who import lots of items, such as Haguns, to other servers to sell for bigger profits. This also lowers the demand over time for whichever server they're being sold on.

Honestly, your pulling ***out of your *** now. Just stop, stop and walk away with what little (or no) dignity you have left.

I bet you, anything you don't know the first thing about economics. You are trying to argue about something you clearly don't know the first thing about.

I don't even know what to say anymore because you end up countering my argument with something thats more retarted than the last response.

Its going to get to the point where I going to be like "You know an economy will always stabalize itself."

And your going to say something like
"n0 beCuZ moNeY wiLl ruN ouT whEn, We ruN out of PapeR to Print it IN!!!1!!!!1!!!!!!11!!!!!

I give up with you.

Go read a book.

I recommend "Economics for Dummies Retards"

I just hate how we are using Hagun as the example. That damn meat cleaver was 800k-1m like 2 years ago when I had my old character 75 sam (before I quit for the first time, this last quitting is permanent). It only jumped to 2-3m when people got a taste of SUPER SAM from 2hander update where only sams got invites to meripos and they were called GK burns not TP burns. 4 sams, 1 brd, 1 rdm = pure win. Sam got adjusted/nerfed and the only way to see some serious dmg spikes again was to get the Hagun. Demand rose and price did as well via the typical proven rule of "supply in demand". So please don't use Hagun when trying to discuss a failing economy and the price of things dropping. Also if you can't remember when Hagun was 1m or less you shouldn't be posting jack ***about the state of this IN GAME economy and its eventual crash as you put it.

Just my 2 cents right there.

PS directed more so at Oddin then the OP.

I totally forgot about that! hahahaha!

No, no, no. According to Oddin, we will all have a Hagun someday and thus there will be no need for them ANYMOREZ!!!!11!!1!!!!

Who the *** said anything about money running out? I never said money would run out. You're a complete joke. You preach you know economics when you clearly have a brain the size of a walnut.

You apparently can't come to terms with the fact that it is indeed possible for ***to not be wanted/needed anymore. It's very possible even if it's not happening now. You're talking about a very small population vs an item that's been produced for the last 5 years and still being produced to this day. But it's impossible to have everyone that actually wants/needs that item to have it? You're a moron. Why don't you go get a refresher course on economics before trying to practice over the internet.

Regardless of the fact so few of them exist on any server in the first place? This is not a common enough item to use in the equation. Pick something semi common like Kirin Osode. Same % as all god gears so your looking at 40%ish drop rate. Thats the obtain. Now wheres the demand, the eventual sell because its just eye candy thanks to the add ons, and the gradual price decline in the effort to sell the item. K.Osode was 5m 2 years ago. 2m-2.5m now on most servers. Thats a better model for what Oddin is trying to say but that is just 1 item out of MANY in this game. Not to mention that since SE has sworn to no longer add jobs or expansions and the trilogy of add ons were the last new content except for upcoming updates we can expect that the only thing SE can add now is ....

wait for it...


wait for it....


MORE ITEMS!

What happens if you run a store and you have too many of an item then you have room for? You sell it cheap. That falls under OP and Oddins logic. Now what if you have alot of stuff to sell but now NEW BETTER STUFF is on the market and its the new hotness? You do what big department stores do, you rotate stock. Move old ***to somewhere else and have it sell regularly there while you move the new hotness at the front of the store. In this case the front of the store being Auction House and the back of the store being rolandmart and shouting/bazaar in town. It differs from what OP and Oddin are saying about the state of the economy. You must remember that as long as SE has gil sinks in place, RMT coming back like a bad cold, and constantly adding new items and new alternative crafting methods, the economy will never crash.

Price isn't the issue. If someone wants something bad enough, they'll pay the price. The issue is this joke of an "economist" thinks that Haguns or any item for that matter will always have a demand. That's not true for such a small *** population such as the FFXI population. With server averages in the 1500-2000s, it's easily possible. Also I can pretty much guarantee I've been playing this game longer than 90% of the population. I beta tested the damn game and have been playing since day 1.

I'm trolling and trolling.... and i have a Hagun zomg :P

As you consider making an attempt to use "big words." Please take this post to your High School English teacher to proofread for you. This way it will atleast make it seem like you know what your talking about.

"brain the size of a walnut" Outstanding use of a Metaphor I learned back in first grade.

"get a refresher course" lolwut?

Seriously, what in the world are you talking about now.

Fitsuno Mitama better.

Haguns will always be wanted with augmenting around.

As more people get their hagun, and demand lowers, price will go down until its low enough where people will be comfortable with mass purchasing for good augments like +STR. Price will eventually balance out between (worth doing enm) vs. (worth trying to augment).

my 2 cents anyways...

This is a good prediction.

I like that ^