Odds Of Failure?

I've just recently capped out skill for Hakutaku Eye Clusters (84) and would like to start making them, but I'm worried about failing on them. For those not aware, failing on this synth results in a loss of all materials. So what are my odds of failing when im just at/above the cap?

Always a 5% chance to fail.

i have a running theory the higher tier you are, your rate of fail increases, just as your rate of hq increases. if you want to see why ive come to this conclusion go synth some tier 3 stuff, you will hq over 1/2 break about 20ish% and nq 20ish% tier 2 ie behemoth hides i usually get about 2-3 /13 hq 1-2 break ect ect