The Rokkenjima Murder Case - Umineko Spoilers

In Rokkenjima Prime, two message bottles were found. Even though it's suggested it's suggested that Yasu wrote the message bottles, it could conceivably have been anybody. So in that regard, Rosa could have done it. My main problem comes with the next point.

The Witch-Hunter community got their hands on the message bottles, and from there, the Rokkenjima Craze spread throughout Japan. From within Umineko, it's suggested that EP1 and EP2 are linked to these message bottles (we can tell based on the characterizations of Beatrice and how they differ slightly across Episodes). I think EP1 and EP2 are actually Forgeries that are only BASED on the events written in the message bottles. EP3-EP7 are constructed to be a "continuation" of a single story derived from what Hachijo Tohya thought was the reason behind the crime (i.e. Yasu). To clarify:
Hachijo: "These message bottles have some similarities regarding this Shannon character. I think Shannon and Kanon did it. I am going to write a series of stories (mysteries) with these characters as the culprit."
Thematically, all of the Episodes have to do with Love, Magic, and Promises. These are all in some form related to the character of Beatrice. I think it's strongly suggestive that the Beatrice of the meta-world is the one who loved and was hurt by Battler: Yasu. Thus, the Forgeries all have Yasu's characterization. If we treat Umineko as one single narrative, the pieces all point to Yasu. Naturally, this raises questions about Ikuko and Tohya.

(I'm talking about the RL counterpart of Featherine if I got the name wrong XD )
A lot of the fans think Ikuko is actually Yasu. So let's examine the possibilities.

1.) Ikuko == Yasu. In this case, she MOST LIKELY strongly suggested the idea of "Yasu as a culprit" to Tohya. She wanted Tohya to remember their love. So she took the message bottles and said "What if Shannon loved Battler?" and from there wrote our Umineko. In this case, it's highly unlikely that any other culprit is likely in the Umineko stories.

2.) Ikuko != Yasu. There is a chance that Ikuko looked at the message bottles and could have ALSO said "I think Rosa did it. I'm going to write about how Rosa was the culprit." I just don't think OUR Umineko stories point to Rosa, on a thematic level. But it could have!

Game1:
First twilight: anyone could have done it, literally(well, except Maria and Kinzo for obvious reasons). My idea is that Rosa faked her death, she has the resources to buy expensive movie makeup to look like the rest of the victims and she is only checked by Nanjo who, in my opinion, lies and cover for her.
Second twilight: this is very interesting. During the day people came and went from the hall, Battler specifies this saying nobody could stand being locked all along etc. Saying he was going to the bathroom George goes to his parents and Eva willingly open the door to him(worth noticing Hideyoshi was taking a bath, so it makes sense Eva would only open the door to their son). George then shoots Eva in the head and later his dad. Here's the twist, Rosa now ghosting about goes to the room and locks it while he returns to the hall. She puts the stakes in their heads but Kanon and Genji arrive before she is done with the magic stuff, however when they leave she paints the circle, lock it again and hides, probably under Eva's bed. When they return they don't really check the room, so Rosa could still be hiding right there under their noses.
Now as I suggested in my previous post the servants, excluding Gohda, are likely aware of the plan and go along with it knowing they wouldn't die but maybe just pretend, however when Kanon sees Shannon corpse he feels betrayed and thus tries to defy Rosa. He attacks her in the boiling room but is wounded, she then doesn't have the time to finish him off cause people arrive, however Nanjo puts him in coma or something(he isnt a murderer)to cover for Rosa. "Kanon wasn't killed" goes well with this, it is only assumed because Nanjo says so to Jessica.
At this point it's easy, Rosa killed Nanjo, Kumasawa and Genji in the hall appearing to Maria as the witch(she tells her to look away, not cause she doesn't want to see corpses, as she did already anyway, but cause that way she doesn't see her shooting and believes in magic). After that she confronts Natsuhi who is shot and later reveals herself to the others, but it's midnight and boom.

Game2:
Rosa demonstrates to be the new head with the ring and the gold, then she kills the siblings.
Second twilight: simple again, she kills Jessica and Kanon and hide his corpse to make him suspicious.
At this point something interesting happens(only in the novel)when she sends the servants away she whispers something with Nanjo who answers "I understand, it will be done". That would be Kanon fake appearace as a demon. In truth Nanjo leaves with Kumasawa and threatens the others(or tells them they are threatened)to say some bs about Kanondemon. Godha gives this one out doing the typical "too honest to be true" thing, repeating over and over "I swear I would never lie" and making weird faces, while Shannon and Genji don't say anything and just confirm. Gohda's behaviour also makes Rosa mad telling him to shutup.
It's George's turn then, he kills Kumasawa and Nanjo, then runs after Gohda and Shannon(or maybe it's the opposite, but both are possible as deaths are confirmed only later), he kills Gohda and then fights with Shannon(the room is messed up), kills her too and fakes his death. Notice Shannon stake is not very deep in her wound in the dead unlike all other stakes, while his own is placed on the abdomen. Rosa also blocks Battler from checking George and thus confirming whether he's dead or not.
The ending is unclear, but Rosa probably decides she's not willing to die afterall and grabs a few ingot and tries to escape with Maria, but she's either killed by George who's lost everything, or doesn't escape in time and boom. I think this is the case because I believe the goats arriving at the end to always represent the explosion, while Beatrice to always represent the culprit and at that moment she was with Battler and Genji - so George could have been revealing the truth and they all died together.

Game3:
Great game. Probably my favourite.
Five servants die, Shannon doesn't, she willingly locks the door cause in this game she accepts George's plan(revealed to her during the ring scene)probably thinking it's only a game. However thinking she's taking a sleeping drug given to her by Rosa she instead takes poison or cyanide(Rosa never planned to save her unlike George)and creates the closed room like that. Again Shannon corpse couldn't be checked cause Nanjo stops Rudolph and then states she's dead.
Eva solves the epitaph, Rosa follows her and tells her everything, she agrees to stopping her murders as she's lost the game, but there's still George to deal with. Eva becomes Beatrice, and becomes obsessed with the other witch which only in this case is referred to as young Eva: her son. Now you should interpret all magic scene with young Eva as scenes with George who has basically hijacked the game.
In the rose garden George confronts Rosa, she says the plan should stop, he disagrees and kills her and Maria cause she's a witness.
Eva knows about it which is why she is going mad, there is also an important scene where Eva talks to youngEva asking her why she's doing this, youngEva explains the dreams of Eva are not her own and she has her plans. That's Eva talking to George about the murder plan.
Kyrie tries to corner Hideyoshi so they go to the mansion. Right at this time George also leaves the guesthouse thanks to Beatrice...as in he goes out and Eva or Nanjo locks the window.
George shoots Kyrie and Rudolph, and is confronted by his dad(mind the scene where he tells youngRosa he'll teach her how to be a good person, that's him talking to his son), however probably Kyrie wasn't dead yet as she shoots Hideyoshi in the back.
It is unclear when Krauss and Natsuhi are actually killed, but Eva was probably involved this time, likely she puts sleeping pills in their coffees and then drags away their corpses while George is away.
George meanwhile goes to find Shannon and find her dead..when the rest of the group finds Rudolph, Kyrie and Hideyoshi so George plays dead and Eva jumps on him and realizes he isn't. Eva then fights with jessica who is blinded and then starts running around for no apparent reason if not to drive Battler away from George. George then shoots Nanjo who begs him not to, Eva decides to take the blame to protect George and maybe shoots Battler. How it ends is unclear as usual, maybe George was wounded and bleeds to death or Eva just goes away from the mansion by coincidence to hide from the others and then everything blows up. Nobody cares about Jessica since she's blind.

Game4:
Kinzo shows himself, this is like the second game, it's Rosa introducing herself as the head of the family. Whether anyone dies or not is unknown since deaths are only confirmed much later, but she takes a few hostages and then tells Gohda and Kumasawa to say a few bs about what happened to play the game with the kids. Thos people will be later killed anyway while trying to making a run for it, they were simply shot so nothing strange about it.
Jessica falls in a trap, she admits that, and is forced to talk about demons to Battler. It's possible it was George to kill her, however Rosa betrays him and kills him too.
She then appears to Battler and tries to make him understand why this is happening, she also says the guilt he burdens is not against herself but someone else..probably Shannon. Battler fails though, so she leaves and kills herself with Maria while Battler will just blow up alone on the island.

Later games are different so I don't think there's any need to get into them.

For George it's obvious, he confesses in game 4 that he is willing to kill everyone to fulfill his desire to be with Shannon, and thus agrees with Rosa's plan.
Why for Rosa is much more complicated. First she becomes a witch, for a couple of reasons: she has the trauma of killing Beatrice and wants to "revive her" and she was raised by Kumasawa who always speaks of magic to troubled children to make em feel better. We also have very strong hints of her being the witch thanks to Maria. Maria is well acquainted with Beatrice, she has easy access to manuscripts and amulets and is also the only person who meets Beatrice off the island when she begs her to fix Sakutarou after Rosa destroyed it moments earlier. She also in more than one occasions says Rosa is possessed by an evil witch but the good witch can defeat her and let her return to the good mama. This is shown in the metaworld where Beatrice tries to help Maria erasing the bad witch and reacquaring the mom she loves. There's also the candy scene, who else could have own one identical to those that Rosa bought that very day?
The problem however still remains of why did Rosa now witch goes as far as committing the murder. This is very difficult and there's probably more than one option. For example, just showing the ring to the siblings and having the support of the servants means jack all to the rest who want the inheritance bad, so in order to claim it she might have to kill em all. It's weak. She could also be extremely deluded and think she will really revive Beatrice with the ritual. Unlikely. Because Battler hurt Shannon..it sure is involved, although why she cares about Shannon feelings is difficult to grasp. At the moment I'm very tired so I'll leave it alone for now.