AMAN Trove Pattern Observation

Yeah, so I know this is probably one big fat annoying coincidence, and I don't want to give any hope of anything, but I noticed a pattern form for me while doing AMAN Trove today on different characters.

So the way I do this, I open the front left chest, the back left, the one next to that, the chest in front, the one next to that, and so on. Once I get to 6 I seriously consider opening the gold, because most of the time the 7th is Chest-o-Plenty. The way you open them shouldn't matter, so long as it's the same way every time across all characters.

Today, I did a short spell of four Mars Orbs, two on each character. The first was on my mule in Waughroon Shrine. So I opened the front left and got Noise, the second was Chest-o-Plenty. The second I got Thud on first, and Loud Thud on second, and opened the Gold to get a Dagon Breastplate (mule has it now despite no Omen access.. woo).

Ok cool, I got lucky. I switched over to my main character and went to Balga's Dais for a change of pace. Guess what happened? Exactly the same result. I got Noise and Mimic on first pop. Thud and Loud Thud on second pop. Got a body piece, but sadly it wasn't an Omen body, but the rare Enforcer's Harness (maybe because I already have Dagon?). What's the chance of that happening? To get the exact same result across two different characters in two different zones? It's either a crazy coincidence, or there's a pattern.

I think I'm going to start making a record, because if there are any kind of presets at work, it may be possible to figure out where things are based off earlier runs. It's also likely this would reset per game day, real day or week at JP midnight, so if there's any recording over several characters you would want to do them quickly back to back and possibly in different areas. Again, it's probably more likely that I got stupid lucky to get the exact same result like this, but what if it isn't? Just a thought.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apophenia

Silly thing is I never gamble anywhere else in my life but in FFXI, not unless someone gave me a free roll (no one would). Like I said, it's way more likely to be coincidence that I got the exact same result four times after the first four.

I rapid fire used three Decanter: Arciela II that I got from Deeds yesterday and got three Enticer's Pants with absolutely identical not-perfect augments. That made me wonder too!

I also just chalk it up to randomness/luck, but sometimes you do have that little doubt in the back of your mind that it's just too weird for some of these coincidences to be totally random.

That's funny because I did the exact same thing! I got three Jumalik Helms from Decanter: Saijaka, and they were so close together. Two of them were the same and only one stat off the other. The chances are crazy low considering it drops more than just one piece, nevermind three with almost exactly the same stats. I think someone's broken the RNG at SE HQ.

Nothing in the game can be totally random. There will always be *some* pattern on *some* level that can be predicted with enough information. Its just entirely unrealistic to ever figure out.

Also, if you talk to the aman trove NPC, he flat out tells you aman trove has bad luck protection of some kind, and you are guaranteed to eventually get quality drops. How its implemented, who knows.

Its been a while, but I think SR drops were tiered to fixed augments. ie: I dont think I've ever seen a Taming Sari with low dmg, low str, no TH but max dex.

Yep. Only like 8 or so augments per piece, and I think decanters have a subset of that too as they are supposedly more likely to reward max augments.

As usual, Nyaarun with the nonsense. It's just luck, nothing you can do but pray to your gods.

It's not that there's a pattern, it's that it isn't really random.

Also, a sample of 4 made you jump to this conclusion?

/random is pretty *** random.

Correct. one can assume if you /random the result will be a number and not a mango. But there's the same chance of 5 straight 999's as 5 completely unique numbers of your choice.


This.

In odyssey segment run, I lotted 998 and then 988 on back to back Lustreless boxes. What are the chances of getting 2 900+ lots immediately after an item drops back to back!? It made me think that quickly lotting on similar items as soon as they drop back to back produces higher numbers because /random starts at 999 then counts back downwards extremely fast, and the quicker you lot it after it drops, the higher your lot will be. if you wait too long, you have to wait until it goes back up to 999 and then click it as it's going back down to get higher lots.

My theory is that it is not predetermined but rather an RNG role that is done when you click a chest. When you open a chest you have an X% chance to get a noise, thud, loud thud, or Ka-thwack.

My reason for this is that it is pretty clear that is how it works in Odyssey. I've done countless runs picking chests and the runs that I've used anything less than skeleton keys, I will get way more mimics. The reason? Every attempt using a key does an RNG roll that has X% to succeed, fail, or spawn a mimic. Keys with a lower success rate require more total attempts which in turn increases your opportunity to spawn a mimic.

Of course, they're different events so I could be completely off base, but it makes the most sense to me and would be the most secure way SE could ensure against cheating.

The keys used in Odyssey are all different, so it's not surprising that the higher quality ones may produce better results (or less mimics) when you pick chests, if only by a small amount. The difference with Aman Trove though is there are no keys you use, you just pick them. So the game doesn't look at your selection and base your outcome on any item used. The comparisons are not the same in that sense, so there's no reason to believe the logic in determining what you get is the same as Odyssey (if that is even how Odyssey chests even work)

It feels like the mimic does indeed move. For you to go in, and hit the mimic in the same spot multiple times isn't impossible, just gets more and more unlikely. And I've had it in the same spot 10 times in a row, again not impossible but realllllly sus. It's easier to believe it was bad timing 10 times in a row, than it "randomly" spawning in the same spot 10x.

It seems very reasonable that the mimic is always there, but jumps from chest to chest and at any given time any given chest could be the mimic, until the end when it has no where else to jump to and is 100% on the 10th box.

My point is the chests in Odyssey are definitely not pre-determined when you spawn into the zone. If that were the case, you'd expect to get a similar number of mimics every run regardless of key type. And that has led me to conclude the same is likely true for AMAN, as well.

I once recorded my aman run and then ran it back after to see if I noticed anything and it turned out the chest with the mimic in it was the last or first one (cant remember) to "light up" when you walk in range

Then I tried it again, recorded it, then opened, and of course it didn't work because I was an idiot and it's all random and the brain is simply hardwired to notice patterns in literally everything ever

Yup

not possible with a program anyway, time based seeds use way too small interval to account for with latency even if you could get leaked source to make a deterministic system

in all likelihood, the game decides noise/thud/loud thud/mimic at the time you click the chest(this is only logical way to do it, as it 100% prevents any way to game the system), and decides loot at the time you click gold chest based on #/noise/thud/loud thud obtained

there's no need to decide where the mimic is, because it's functionally identical to a 1/n chance applied to remaining chests

Ha! I did a similar thing with the lighting... I had even tried /random and tried opening high chest first for high number / low for low, using the light as the beginning or end.

After 4 tries I concluded that it had a pattern I just needed to figure out.

Absolutely agreed, I believe it must be something like this. Chest contents are not pre-determined upon entry, but upon opening each chest the game just rolls based on a "loot table" with a % chance of each possible outcome:

Something like the below for each chest opened (totally pulling numbers out of the air for illustrative purposes):
Noise: 60%
Thud: 15%
Loud Thud: 5% (possibly capped at 1 Loud Thud per entry) - and yes I know this is surely too high lol
Mimic: 20% (increased to 100% if only one chest remains)

I wouldn't be surprised if those percentages don't change based on number of chests opened.

That approach also allows for easy differentiation between Mars and Venus orbs. Venus just has a more player-friendly "loot table". Higher Loud Thud chance, and/or maybe a lower Mimic chance, etc.


Never mind my above comments, I think I just figured out the pattern! It's "If Playername=Capuchin; then=KA-THWACK!" Same pattern applies to Mars or Venus orbs.

Computers cannot produce truly random results. Given enough information, one can predict the outcome.

And the outcome is dependant on factors that are timed too tightly for you to predict or manipulate, so you're just being pedantic and showing off that you know one extremely basic fact. Go away, you do not contribute.

You can get multiple loud thuds. Ive seen three in a row on a mars orb at the beginning of aman trove.

In other words, im right.

Also, again, aman trove uses bad luck protection of some form. The aman trove NPC straight up tells you the more you do it, the higher your chance to get better items. Its functionally not random by its programing.

Does anybody really notice the difference between the two orbs? People would assume the ratio of silver vouchers:orbs indicates that venus is superior, but does anyone have anything more conclusive than "Venus is better"?

Our LS did ~100 venus orbs last month or the month before. We saw a significant increase in loud thud proc rate. It could be cashing in on the bad luck protection, but it does seem to have a much better chance at face value. Most of the orbs led to us opening the final chest, as opposed to getting mimic'd.

They technically can using QRNG, but it's not a method that video games are going to use (and indeed even those than can generally don't bother because of other hassles).