Treasure Caskets

I understand there is/are plugin(s) for windower4 that will help with caskets, though I have yet to try any. It seems that with 6 attempts, one can always reduce to combination down to a 50/50 guess between n and n+1 (excluding any other additional hints). The scheme is to simply pick the middle value of the given range, and filter according to higher/lower.

For a worked example, if the actual combination is 34, and the range is 11~99, then (1) start with a pick of 11+(99-11)/2 = 55. You will get a clue that the combination is lower than 55. (After every guess, you will either learn that the actual number is greater than or less than your most recent guess.) Your new range is 11~55, so (2) use 11+(55-11)/2 = 33. The next clue is that the value is larger than 33. So you know it must be in the range 33~55. So now on attempt (3) you would use 33+(55-33)/2 = 44; the log will say the number is less than 44. For attempt (4) in which the range is now 33~44, use an integer close to 33+(44-33)/2 = 38.5 -- so either 38 or 39. Let's say we chose 38. For attempt (5), you know your number must now be 34, 35, 36, or 37. The halfway point is either 35 or 36. If you pick 36, then you have a 50/50 shot to guess between the values 34 and 35. If you pick 35, then you know that the final combination is 34.

If you should gain some additional hints, then you will likely have the right combination before attempt #6. By always using the mid-point and re-adjusting the range, a program would have at least a 75% chance of getting the right combination within 6 attempts.

I'm sure a lot of folks have figured this out. I am just curious if people came up with other schemes.

By that example, you don't take any of the other clues into consideration.

The accuracy rate for anyone who actually pays attention should be greater than 80% for caskets. Even on 5 guesses, it shouldn't be that difficult to figure out.

Go THF, spam keys, and use your method. You'll open just about every single one.

Thief's tools makes it 100%
http://www.ffxiah.com/forum/topic/43780/crafting-torques/8#2686574

Definitely does not make it 100% but damn near close.

It's most definitely 100%

1. Use multiple thief’s tools until only 31 (63 for a 6-chance box) or fewer possible numbers remain, thief's tools can achieve this.
2. Use the median of the remaining numbers as your guess, if the range of numbers is even you can use either number in the middle.
3. Repeat step 2 until the final attempt.
4. Use your final attempt to enter the final possibility.

This formula leaves you with a single possibility after 4 iterations with 31 or fewer possible numbers in a sequence (5 iterations with 63 or fewer) allowing you to open the box with your final attempt, proving it can be done every time.

a = possible numbers remaining
a = (a-1)/2

here it is in action

(31-1)/2=15
(15-1)/2=7
(7-1)/2=3
(3-1)/2=1

And plugging the greatest and lowest number into the following equation gives you the number you should be using as a guess:

guess = (greatest-lowest)/2+lowest

e.g.
(41-11)/2+11 = 26

Remember, when it says it's between x & y. That is including the stated numbers.
Higher
26+8=34
Lower
34-4=30
Lower
30-2=28
Higher
I got this
26
FUUUUUUCK, I mistyped.

Don't mistype and you won't fail.

Do you even play anymore? Not seen you in years man.

It would be extremely ignorant of you to believe that this is 100%, it is not, everyone and their mothers would have had all their torques within a year of it coming out if this was the case, so... no.

Math is hard ?
And are you confusing the chance of opening the box with drop rate?


Let me try to explain it but im not sure you are going to understand it if you don't get basic preschool math
Everytime you make a guees the worst case scenario is that you remove the one you guessed on and half of the remaining ones

So lets starts with 31 possible combinations
You guess wrong. you know to eliminate the one in the middle that you guessed on, and half of the remaini 30 due to you getting the high/low hint.
So after that, only 15 possible candiates are left. with me so far ?

ok so let see how many candiates do you have for each of the 5 guesses

1st 31
2nd 15
3rd 7
4th 3
5th 1

each of those iterations you have one chance of hitting the right one so it would below chances of getting it right

1/31
1/15
1/7
1/3
1/1

If you have a 1/1 chance to guess right... yes you are hitting 100% on you last guess in worst case scenario..



https://www.amazon.com/mathematics-dummies-Books/s?ie=UTF8&page=1&rh=n%3A283155%2Ck%3Amathematics%20for%20dummies
just in case you want to double check before calling people ignorant

I am not sure he is assuming 31 possible combinations? That's all I can think. Otherwise, yes, fail in basic math. The math works, it is easy to see that.

I want to think he still sees it as 99 (or 100, not sure if 00 works). In which case, reading comprehension is his issue. Or, is it a combination of both math and reading skill deficits?

All joking aside, yes, in that case, it is 100%. The main issue is bringing enough thief's tools, since likely you will be there a couple days, and won't want to leave and lose your treasure casket drop rate prowess. I don't know how many times I had to use several keys to get it down to 31 possibilities. Maybe bad luck for me, but luckily I have a second account, so I could buy tools and bring them on that. Not everyone has that luxury.

Just something else to consider: 100%, yes, but under circumstances that use additional items that eventually run out.