T1 HQ Streaks

Not trying to stir up a rage thread, but with all the WTB/WTS, who cares - we need some life on here.

I was afk today and when I came back I reviewed the chat logs and noticed someone go 6/7 on Cursed Mitts -1. Anyone else experienced an HQ rate like this before? Am I missing something? Did the HQ tiers change or was this really just RNG godlike luck?

If my understanding is correct, that is a level 96 synth, meaning it would take 127 skill to reach the T2 threshold, and thus impossible as 110+14 is currently max. With a 1/16 HQ rate, 6/7 seams mathematically impossible. I could believe 6/7 @ T2 rates. Hell, I don't even go 6/7 on T3.

Unfortunately, I was unable to confirm the gear he/she was wearing at the time.

Maybe I'm just jelly to the max here, but anyone else care to share their experience with T1's? - my personal best is 3/18 and personal worst is 0/55.

RNG is RNG

Could've been using the equipment exploit to raise your craft levels by duping items like the torque in other equipment slots.

Or... he just went on the best T1 streak of his life. RNG is RNG.

Some can equip +skill gear on all slots, usually the ones spaming wts threads and deny this hax.

When I was skilling up Alchemy last year on Ice Shields I was at level 98 and hit 3 HQs in a row. That's T0 with a 1 out of 262144 chance of happening. RNG is RNG. I should dig up that SS and put it on here.

Edit: Blah my dropbox backup is only setup to save my main's SS and reformatted since.

As far as I can tell, that exploit no longer works. If someone managed to keep the gear on, I highly doubt they'd synth outside their mog house with it where people can see/report them.

That said, the chance of going 6/7 on a T2 in a given 7 synth series is 1/780 even if they were exploiting to get T2. T3 would not be attainable unless they had a kupo shield.

The chance of going 6/7 on a T1 in a given 7 synth series is 1/2,556,528. Hard to say how many T1 synth series are done daily on ffxi, but say 16 servers with at least a dozen active crafters doing 10 series of 7 T1s a day each. That's 16 * 12 * 10 = 1920. Would happen roughly once every 4 years.

Extremely improbable, but looking at the facts of the situation.. even if they did manage to keep exploit gear on AND were stupid enough to use it in public, 1/780 isn't a pretty number either. My vote is for luck.

It's dumb luck. When I was leveling up alchemy to 110 (mind u no shield or furnishings) I had lots of mats for hexed doublet 31 to be exact and I made 5 -1s. Once I was out of mats I was105. Said *** it bought one ore to try 1 -1 and I got 1/1 jinxed at 105. Most of it is about luck and beliefs in a HQ system. Or the jelly *** assuming everyone used a hack (I always craft in public it's fun to see angry tells when I HQ. The tears feed my soul and I'm a weirdo and only synth in adoulin

Thanks for doing the math. I knew it had to be astronomical odds - wish I had saved the screen grab.

It did make me laugh that he went 0/6 on the subsequent money synth. All balances out in the long run.

But I was still in amazement with the luck on the -1 synth. RNG FTW!

Get this ***out. 2/32 -1s cursed harness 0/2 on -1 0/30 on nq to HQ. The next day 1/2 moonbow whistle +1..... the math doesn't make sense !!

I've gone 4/30 on Jinxed Bonnet's before at T0, I've also gone 0/60+. I've gone 5/12 on Cursed Hauberk -1 @ T1 years and years ago. It just happens like that sometimes. It's like taking a 70 sided die and rolling it. The chances of you rolling a 1 are 1/70. Can you roll a 1 4 times in a row? Sure can! Chances of that happening though? Pretty dang slim, but still possible!