Tear Synthesis

I just synthed 215 garudite/fenrite/ramuite on iceday facing east during 10% moon. I am 104+10 goldsmithing. I had hq and success rings from adoulin on. I got 0 hq3's. Wanna ask SE WTF!?

k

HQ3 rate is around 1.5% on Iceday while facing east. HQ rate forr synergy using the NQ ring seems to be around 10% or so. I'm not sure if the Rhodium Ring +1 recipe increases the HQ rate at all.

Ah, good old crafting and it's randomness. Good days and bad days, you obviously picked a bad day. Try again at another time. There'd be days when I went 0/30 on hauberk -1 and then days I'd go 5/12. I feel thy pain.

Well there is your problem, you want to be facing east-west on a 110% waxing moon on Thursday.

you can only get hq3 on these if your SE account or credit card is tied to more then 4 accounts. then the HQ3 rate is about 33%. also at that point the synergy hq rate increases to 50%

Did you get any HQs? Did you accidentally have on the NQ only ring? I've kept track of my sparkling stones and in the thousands upon thousands, I have a 5.3% to break and 3.1% to HQ3, at well over 80+ cap.

Does not increase the chance, only makes the synergy formula a tad bit easier.

um.. whoosh I guess.

not sure how responding to his uncertainty about rhodium ring +1 makes it a whoosh

oops my mistake~

On a serious note, I went HQ3 8 times. I used about 300-400 stones.
105+5+3+2 goldsmithing, HQ ring, decrease loss ring, ionis, and coconut rusk.

I've had:
First garudite synth-> Garutear
2 x synth in a row on Rammutear.

It really depends on your luck of the irish. I plan on making all the tears and hopes SE makes some kind of rainbow ring that calls upon captain planet!

1044 synths of ifritite at 104+10 resulted in the following results:

NQ 791 (75.77%)
HQ1 184 (17.62%)
HQ2 46 (4.41%)
HQ3 15 (1.44%)
Break 8 (0.77%)

These were all performed on iceday facing east per that good old synth compass chart (no idea if there is actual data to support it) and were done without rusk.

I did about 200 synths with rusk and noticed that I did get a lot more HQs, but noticeably less HQ2/3. I decided to start keeping track after I stopped using the rusk. I would love to see if anyone has data that may suggest this same shift toward HQ1 with a higher sample size. I would like to try it on a synth with less gil implicated and with 1000 samples on each, but don't hold your breath for it.

People still believe in direction and days ~.~

I did enough synth tracking over the years to know that at least days do make a difference. If you dont believe, you can burn in hell with the rest of the non-believers.

Thank you for contributing in no way to the conversation. If you could make that statement with maybe a link to something that backs it...that would be helpful.

I'm not really sure if the day or direction work, they seem to, but there is something to be said about adding details for completion sake and that others may be able to draw conclusions from this with whatever they have compiled.

So basically, thanks for nothing but the ridicule of being thorough and attempting some sort of standardized approach to a new synth.

25% HQ rate at 31 above cap

1/16 HQ3 rate on a given HQ

1/64 global rate, slightly modified by HQ+% gear or whatever

unless you have 20,000 of the same synth logged on different days, you're just talking out your ***, there's never been credible evidence presented that days do anything and your sample size is most likely ***

Who is this directed at?

this fellow, the one claiming data but not presenting it

First off, that was 5 years ago, and that pc is long gone. Secondly, I have 0 reason to talk out of my *** unless I wanted a conversation with you directly.

As far as my recollection, I had months of synths logged from different days and moon phases (moon phases which didn't seem reliably to affect things). The only reason it's never been proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, is because SE has never confirmed it. No one needs to show you a log of 20,000 synths to prove anything to you. I've done the synths, and am convinced, and like i said previously, you can burn in hell if you're a non-believer.

Do you also believe in facing east ?

When skilling up with a wind crystal based synth, absolutely.

^ tried too hard to follow up on failaras

I guess you believe in vaudoo and also believe with your heart!

low moon is why, do it at 50%+

I say my mules name every time I'm going for a particular HQ synth or rare drop because he tends to be obscenely lucky at times.



They do, actually. If you're convinced, that's all well and good. If you're trying to convince others, claiming you have all this old data you just happen to not be able to present, but assuring us personally that you're right is pretty much useless. You shouldn't come in here trying to convince others nor stating your superstition as anything more than just that without support evidence. We've proven plenty of things without SE giving us official confirmation for years, this is one thing that simply remains to have no supporting evidence. It could be true, it could not be, general statistical rule is to assume there is no difference unless proven otherwise though.

There's a lot of natural variability in HQ rate that requires a large sample size. My guess would be you stopped once you were "convinced", meaning you found one subset of data that happened to agree with that you were trying to prove, but may actually not have been outside the possibility of variability for the scale you did it on.

^ tried too hard to be relevant.

typical christianreligious person

Moon, day, direction don't do ***, my old pc had over 10,000 synths logged over 8 years and tl;dr they all eventually converged to the same hq rate +/- a few tenths of a percent