The Rokkenjima Murder Case - Umineko Spoilers

I think it's the only one that really makes sense and it ties well with everything else. First she's crazy as ***. This is confirmed when she herself admits that The fact that Ange is left at home could suggest that she planned ahead the mass murder as well, but that could be a coincidence. Rudolph thought he was going to die by her own hands because of what he did, that could be the moment where she either lost her mind completely or took the chance to put him on a leash and use him as an accomplice. I think that the 7th game, even if not completely accurate still holds a lot of the truth: Still there's something I'm not sure of...in what way does Battler presence change Yasu's plans? We know that "Beatrice" becomes a victim of her own plan, but what was the plan anyway? Maybe to escape with Battler? Judging from the 8th game it seems she died after they left the island, but I'm not sure. Did Battler find her still alive after Kyrie's rampage and tried to take her with him? And then she killed herself cause she thought she was the cause?

Kyrie, since well she's smart, but smart in a creepy way. Not quite diabolical, but you know she can get ***done if she wanted to. I guess her heritage strengthens this image of her for me.

Shkannon became obvious, super obvious by EP6 so I thought that. Then Shannon's WOULD YOU L IKE M E TO CALL KANON K UN made it official.

Rokkenjima Prime? (The REAL event)
It could be a number of things. I personally think that Ange is just a *** and chose to remember everybody as horrible people so it would be easier to pin it all on Eva.

It's kind of hard to stray away from Shkannon though. There is considerable evidence for Kyrie being the culprit, but a lot of it is just Bernkastel trolling the *** out of everybody.

Shannon has money and manpower, so she can do whatever she wants to unchecked. She decides to play a 'murder game' with Battler when he returns, hoping that he'll remember.

This is initially not ACTUAL murder. EP5 and 6 suggest that the First Twilight is faked at first. The fakery is either

a.) A way to convince everybody to go along with it or
b.) Legitimate, but then Kyrie or Eva hijack it with real murder

I lean towards the former. You see, one of the dubious points of Shkannon is 'how can a girl commit six murders at once?' Easy, you bribe them with money to play along with a 'game'. The premeditation is supported by the bank accounts shown in EP4.

No one besides Battler really HAS to suspect real murder at all, depending on who's involved. The makeup is convincing enough that nobody has to really know that they're actually dead. This is in Shannon's favor: after all, once somebody finds out, they would give away the ruse.

However, at any point in the game, somebody can solve the Epitaph. As seen in EP3, the first person to solve the puzzle becomes 'Beatrice', and Shannon is willing to relinquish all of her power to this person. Perhaps she hopes Battler can solve it, who knows.

EP1 is the 'bad end' in which nobody solves the Epitaph, meaning Shannon wreaks havok all the way through. EP3 is a world where someone succeeds and takes up the murders independently.

Essentially, I propose a rather rigid set of rules for Rokkenjima (there is room for variation, naturally). EP7 shows us a miracle kakera, but this has a very small probability of actually happening at all.

Going to the point, the culprit imho can only be one between Eva, Shannon, Kyrie and stretching it a bit Battler, others make very little sense.

Eva
why yes: she's the only survivor; hides the truth from Ange; she's the only one who could reasonably solve the epitaph; has the crazy Ushiromiya genes like Kinzo, Rosa and Shannon; revenge/greed could be motives
why not: the heart, she would never kill Hideyoshi and George, so someone else must have been killing along with her(the husband being her accomplice and dying protecting her makes a lot of sense, but still it would mean that someone else kills him)

Kyrie
why yes: she's crazy; she could go even crazier cause Rudolph *** with her, and being Battler "the cause" that could possibly relate to it; Ange is left at home; Eva hides the truth from Ange; she's shown to be very greedy and unscrupulous more than once
why not: nothing really

Battler
why yes: he's never shown to be actually killed and 8th ending could be true; he comes back after 6 years and hell breaks loose; truth is hidden from Ange; his comeback is considered the cause that starts everything
why not: breaks pretty much all the rules; doesn't really have a reason to kill anyone beside Rudolph, so he's really lacking a motif

Shannon:
why yes: she is Beatrice; holds a grudge against Battler - the reason why the murder game starts; is completely out of her mind; Nanjo, Kumasawa and Genji could be her allies, whilst for others only Maria would be; the whole premeditation thing is her doing
why not: Eva would have no reason not to tell Ange she was the culprit(I know it's for mistery's sake, but stilll...); her only grudges are against Kinzo, Battler and the "purgatory sisters", so why would she kill everyone else...unless she confuses magic with reality one more time and actually kills people during "the game" without even realizing(which isn't so farfetched at all); she becomes a victim, but in what way?

So in the end it boils down to Kyrie and Shannon for me.

On a side note I liked some other explanations though, like Rosa strangling Maria out of anger. I really believed that!

Rosa. With EP3, we are shown that she is capable of solving the Epitaph alone, though she arrives minutes after Eva. Eva just acts first and kills her and her daughter.
I think it's not necessarily premeditated each time, save for Shannon.
Of course, the first person to solve the Epitaph becomes Beatrice. I'd argue that this person then continues to the murders for one of the following reasons:
a.) To protect the gold. After all, there is a chance that somebody will come along and take some of it, and no no no we can't have that. The culprit would be shortsighted or blinded by greed, because he doesn't realize that the bomb will take away MOST of the gold.
b.) It's just easier to explain. Murders have already happened at this point, though the new Beatrice didn't do any of them. When the police arrive, Beatrice will be very VERY suspicious. It's just easier to wipe the others out with the bomb (excluding loved ones who can keep their mouths shut).

EP3 and possibly EP5 conform to this pattern. The EP7 Tea Party does too, but we don't know if that's valid because it was Bernkastel's story.

Granted, there are quite a few explanations for it all. Willard's solutions narrow the culprits to a few people, thus restricting the 'pattern'.

Together, we are a walking time paradox.